Matters:
On March 5, 2022, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened. Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report to the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress on behalf of the State Council Xi Jinping participated in the deliberation of the Inner Mongolia delegation. In terms of energy, it was mentioned that “we should strengthen the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, strive to solve the problem of tight supply of coal and electricity”, “enhance China’s resource production guarantee capacity, and accelerate the exploration and development of oil, gas, minerals and other resources” “To achieve the goal of ‘double carbon’, we must be based on national conditions, adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and gradually achieve it. We must not be divorced from reality, be eager for success, and engage in sports’ carbon reduction ‘and’ slamming the brakes'”.
Ping An View:
Energy supply and demand are still tight and prices are still relatively high. The 2022 government work report pointed out that “we will strengthen the supply and price stability of bulk commodities and strive to solve the problem of tight coal and power supply”. After the Spring Festival, coal production gradually resumed. On February 21, 2022, according to the announcement of the national development and Reform Commission, the national coal output has rebounded to more than 12 million tons / day. According to the dispatching data, on February 20, the national coal output was 12.18 million tons, which has returned to the average daily output level in the fourth quarter of last year. However, affected by geopolitics, overseas coal prices rose. On March 4, the FOB price of Indonesian thermal power coal at all levels increased by about $10-20 / ton on a weekly basis, and the price of imported coal was higher than that of China. In the case of tight coal supply and demand, the state stabilizes the supply and price of power coal through the long-term cooperation mechanism, but the market coal price may be affected by the international coal price at a high level. Releasing output and capacity is the fundamental way to alleviate the high coal price. It is expected that the country will further release coal mine capacity in the future.
Ensure energy security. The government report pointed out that “China’s resource production guarantee capacity will be enhanced”. Energy security is the basis for ensuring the stable operation of the economy. China’s national conditions dominated by coal, ensuring the safe and stable supply of coal is the basis of energy security, and coal to fuel is an important way to replace crude oil.
Orderly promote the carbon neutralization of carbon peak and implement the action plan of carbon peak. The government report pointed out that “we should promote the energy revolution, ensure energy supply, base ourselves on resource endowments, adhere to the principle of building first and then breaking down, and make overall plans to promote the transformation of low-carbon energy. We should strengthen the clean and efficient utilization of coal, orderly reduce and replace coal, and promote the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction, flexibility and heating of coal and electricity.” Double carbon is the future trend, but we should pay attention to the relationship between short-term and long-term. Clean and efficient utilization of coal is still the current green and low-carbon energy supply mode.
To achieve the “double carbon” goal, we must base ourselves on national conditions, adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability and gradually achieve it Xi Jinping general secretary attended the deliberation of the Inner Mongolia delegation. Jia run’an, a representative from Guoneng Baotou Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., spoke on the topic of “promoting the high-end, diversified and low-carbon development of coal chemical industry, helping carbon peak and carbon neutralization”. The general secretary pointed out, “Green transformation is a process that cannot be accomplished overnight. We should first build and then break, and we should not build and break without first. China’s national conditions are rich in coal, poor in oil and less gas, and it is difficult to fundamentally change the coal based energy structure in the short term. To achieve the goal of” double carbon “, we must base ourselves on national conditions, make steady progress and gradually achieve it. We must not be divorced from reality, be eager for success, and engage in a campaign of” carbon reduction ” Step on the ’emergency brake’. You can’t throw away the guy who eats first. As a result, the new guy hasn’t got it yet. That’s no good. We should not only have a green and clean environment, but also ensure the normal progress of our production and life. ” The general secretary further stressed that the green transformation should be established first and then broken, and gradually realized. Inner Mongolia is the main production base of coal and coal chemical industry in China. To develop coal chemical industry to high-end, diversified and low-carbon, we should not only ensure energy security, but also realize green development.
Investment suggestion: the government work report has repeatedly given instructions on energy security, energy supply and double carbon work, reflecting the attention to the energy industry. At present, the situation of tight energy supply and high price continues. On the one hand, the state guides the price of electric coal, on the other hand, it may continue to release coal mine production capacity to alleviate the shortage of supply, and relevant coal mining machinery companies will benefit. In terms of coal chemical industry, under the pressure of tight world oil and gas supply and high prices, coal chemical industry will become an important alternative to oil supply. The capacity construction of coal chemical industry may be accelerated, and relevant coal chemical enterprises and equipment companies will benefit. Recommend China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\369 etc.
Risk tips: 1) under the influence of macro situation and other factors, the international oil price may decline, resulting in the decline of the price of coal chemical products, and the project construction is not as expected; 2) Under the policies of environmental protection, double carbon target and double control of energy consumption, the approval of coal chemical projects is limited; 3) Fierce competition among equipment suppliers, or resulting in the reduction of gross profit margin of equipment, which has an impact on the profits of relevant companies; 4) Raw materials such as iron and steel in the upstream of the equipment increased greatly, resulting in a decline in the gross profit margin of the equipment and an impact on the profits of relevant companies.
