Industry trend: this week, the public utilities and environmental protection index rose 1.85%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%. Among the environmental protection sectors, the atmospheric governance sector rose 1.93%, and the environmental monitoring sector rose 1.76%; In the public utilities sector, except the local power grid sector, which fell 1.01%, other sectors rose, including the clean energy power generation sector, which rose 4.42%.
Key points of this week:
1) public utilities perspective:
The pricing mechanism of the long-term coal association is further improved, and the performance rate is expected to increase: on February 24 and February 28, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism and the notice on doing a good job in the supervision of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022 to further improve the pricing mechanism of the long-term coal association. The new pricing mechanism is formed by the average price of benchmark price and floating price: the benchmark price is raised to 675 yuan / ton; The floating price refers to the comprehensive price index of the national coal trading center, the comprehensive price index of power coal around the Bohai Sea and the comprehensive price index of power coal in Qinhuangdao. In addition, the notice mentioned that power generation enterprises sign long-term agreements with 100% of the coal except imported coal. Supply and demand enterprises should submit the contract performance online every month to ensure that the monthly performance rate of a single contract is not less than 80%, and the quarterly and annual performance rate is not less than 90%. The performance rate is expected to increase significantly. Although the benchmark price of coal has increased compared with the previous 535 yuan / ton, thermal power enterprises still have profit space on the basis of rising electricity price. With the improvement of coal price performance rate, similar to the possibility of huge losses in thermal power enterprises in the second half of last year, it is less likely to benefit thermal power enterprises.
The government work report was released to promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization in an orderly manner. Recently, in the government work report, Li Keqiang proposed to orderly promote the carbon neutralization of carbon peak and implement the carbon peak action plan, which focuses on promoting the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and their supporting regulatory power sources, and improving the consumption capacity of the power grid for renewable energy power generation. Promote the R & D, promotion and application of green and low-carbon technologies, build a green manufacturing and service system, and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in high energy consuming industries. At the same time, the report proposes that “the energy consumption intensity target shall be comprehensively assessed within the 14th Five Year Plan period with appropriate flexibility”. We believe that this is not to relax the assessment target, but to avoid one size fits all and great leap forward development, which is conducive to green power enterprises not only pursuing installed capacity growth, but paying more attention to the rate of return on investment, which is conducive to the high-quality development of the industry.
Under the background of uncertain international situation and steady growth, it is suggested to focus on the public utility sector with defensive attributes. The public sector mainly recommends nuclear power + new energy two wheel drive. Both business sectors have the space for both volume and price to rise [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ], and the number of projects under construction is high. In 2021, offshore wind power projects under construction account for a large proportion, and the target [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ] with both short-term performance growth and certainty.
2) viewpoint of environmental protection:
Strengthen the supervision and management of sewage outlets into rivers and seas. Recently, the general office of the State Council issued the implementation opinions on strengthening the supervision and management of sewage outlets into rivers and seas. The goal is to complete the investigation of sewage outlets in the main streams, important tributaries, key lakes and key bays of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, Pearl River, Songliao and Taihu Lake Basins (hereinafter referred to as seven basins) by the end of 2023; We will promote the regulation of sewage outlets in the main streams and important tributaries of the Yangtze and yellow rivers and the Bohai Sea. The goal is to complete the investigation of all sewage outlets in seven watersheds and coastal waters by the end of 2025; Basically complete the regulation of sewage outlets in seven river basins, major tributaries, key lakes and key bays; Establish a relatively complete legal system, scientific technical system and efficient management system for sewage outlet supervision and management. It is suggested to pay attention to the tap of civil centrifugal pump [ Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.Ltd(002884) ].
We will continue to improve the ecological environment and deepen the fight against pollution. A few days ago, Li Keqiang put forward in the government report that the ecological environment will be continuously improved in 2022, and put forward requirements for air, soil, solid waste, water treatment and other aspects: 1) strengthen the coordinated control of multiple air pollutants and regional coordinated governance, strengthen the pollution control of important rivers, lakes and bays, and continue to promote the prevention and control of soil pollution; 2) Strengthen the treatment of solid waste and new pollutants, and promote waste classification, reduction and recycling; 3) We will improve support policies for environmental protection industries such as energy and water conservation and recycling of waste materials. The environmental protection sector focuses on recommending [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ], which is mainly engaged in waste incineration power generation, entering the new energy lithium battery recycling and opening up performance growth space, and actively transforming the target [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ] for the resource utilization of distiller’s grains based on the disposal of high water content wastes.
Market information tracking:
1) carbon market tracking: the total turnover of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) this week was 319000 tons, with a total turnover of 164297 million yuan. The weekly trading volume of the listing agreement is 580 tons, the weekly turnover is 33500 yuan, the highest transaction price is 59.00 yuan / ton, and the lowest transaction price is 52.68 yuan / ton. The closing price on Friday is 57.90 yuan / ton, down 1.08% from last Friday. The weekly trading volume of block agreement trading is 318500 tons, with a weekly turnover of 163962 million yuan. As of this week, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 188.5 million tons, with a cumulative turnover of 8.18 billion yuan.
2) natural gas price tracking: the average price of LNG in China fell after rising this week: according to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, the average weekly transaction price of LNG in China this week was 848616 yuan / ton, up 410.47 yuan / ton month on month, or 5.08%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 878938 yuan / ton, up 689.06 yuan / ton or 8.51% month on month; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 824590 yuan / ton, up 435.92 yuan / ton, or 5.58%.
3) coal market price tracking: the coal price rose slightly this week: according to the data released by the coal resources network, the cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 795 yuan / ton. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 766 yuan this week, unchanged on a week-on-week basis 6 Hitevision Co.Ltd(002955) 500 kcal index was 710 yuan, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; Datong 5500 kcal index was 865 yuan, up 13 yuan on a weekly basis.
Portfolio
\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 + China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) + Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) + Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) + Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034)
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is at risk of reduction.
