The two sessions raised the demand for affordable housing again, focusing on the “new citizens” policy. At 9 a.m. on March 5, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened in the Great Hall of the people. Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report. The government report of the two sessions again mentioned “meeting the reasonable housing needs of property buyers” and continued to put the expression of “ensuring the housing needs of the masses” in the first place. In addition, it routinely mentioned “no speculation in housing and housing”, “three stability” and “implementing policies due to the city”. We expect that the protection and satisfaction of the reasonable housing needs of the people, especially the “new citizens”, mentioned in the notice on strengthening the financial services of new citizens issued by the CBRC and the people’s Bank of China on March 4, will be the focus of recent policies.
The purchase and loan restrictions in Zhengzhou were relaxed. Zhengzhou issued the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. This new deal has made great breakthroughs in purchase restriction, loan restriction, land supply and other aspects. Families with elderly people coming to Zheng to join relatives and provide for the elderly can buy a new set of housing; For families whose first house has settled the loan, the second house will enjoy the first house loan policy and reduce the mortgage interest rate.
Market review: the increase is in the front stage, 3.30 percentage points ahead of the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 1.6%, 3.30 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking fifth among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 86 stocks rose this week, an increase of 58 over last week and 51 stocks fell. (this week in the report refers to the week from February 26 to March 4).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 3.22 million square meters, down 7.7% month on month and 39.0% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 602000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 17.9% and a year-on-year ratio of – 42.0%; The sample of second tier cities was 1.755 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 10.5% and a year-on-year ratio of – 32.3%; The third tier cities in the sample were 863000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 8.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 47.6%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1033000 square meters, an increase of 8.1% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 30.4%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 332000 square meters, a month on month increase of 10.5%; The sample of second tier cities is 569000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 7.2%; The third tier cities in the sample are 132000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 5.7%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 7.787 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 35.2%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 2.271 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 43.9%; The sample of second tier cities was 4.487 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 27.2%; The sample third tier cities were 1028000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 27.2%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises continued to recover. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 15 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (2.28-3.6), down 1 month on month; The issuance scale totaled 15.490 billion yuan, down 1.860 billion yuan month on month, the total repayment was 9.722 billion yuan, up 42 million yuan month on month, and the net financing amount was 5.768 billion yuan, down 1.902 billion yuan month on month. The bond interest rates of Kunming hi tech (50bp), Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.Ltd(600736) (5bp), Vanke five-year note (45bp), shoukai (17bp), Lingang holding (45bp) and Cinda investment (211bp) companies are higher than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. “Continued favorable policies – the bottom of industry fundamentals is expected to rise later – state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and restore the gross profit margin of land acquisition” is the main logic of 2022, which will achieve three-level resonance upward in fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
