Events
On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the government work report "Adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies".
Main points
Adhere to the general tone of "housing, housing and non speculation", and the policy end under "steady growth" may be improved. The general tone of "no speculation in housing, housing and housing" has been mentioned in many central meetings. The government work report mentioned that "we should adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress in stability this year. In the face of new downward pressure, we should put steady growth in a more prominent position". As a pillar industry, the real estate industry is of great significance to steady growth. Recently, some cities have issued new policies to promote the steady development of the real estate market. It is expected that relevant policies will follow up in the later stage to repair market confidence and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Support residents' reasonable housing needs and enter the deep-water area due to urban policies. Combined with the notice on strengthening financial services for new citizens issued by the CBRC and the central bank on March 4, the notice defines the scope of new citizens, optimizes housing financial services and meets the housing needs of new citizens. It is expected that the financial side will further increase its support for the commercial housing market. According to the notice, new citizens cover a wide range, involving about 300 million people. Supporting the reasonable housing needs of new citizens will inject new demand into the commercial housing market.
Rent and sale simultaneously, and the construction of affordable housing may be accelerated. Adhering to both rent and sale, accelerating the development of long-term rental housing market and increasing security supply can meet the reasonable housing needs of new citizens. Combined with the guidance on bank insurance institutions supporting the development of affordable rental housing issued by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on February 16, we expect that financial institutions will provide corresponding financial support for the construction of affordable rental housing, and the construction of affordable housing may be accelerated.
Investment advice
In the second half of the year, with the contraction of liquidity and the occurrence of credit risk events in some real estate enterprises, the market wait-and-see mood improved, and the de commercialization speed of commercial housing sales slowed down. Although some cities have recently introduced new policies to stabilize the property market, the commercial housing sales market is still not optimistic. With the implementation of urban policies into the deep-water area, it is expected that under the goal of "stable growth", the real estate policy will continue to improve. It is not ruled out that more cities will introduce policies to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
In the short term, the credit environment still needs to be improved, the Matthew effect on capital is prominent, and enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit; In the medium and long term, after the in-depth adjustment of the industry, brand real estate enterprises with the advantages of financing and land acquisition will have obvious advantages in the future competition. Related targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and sustainable land acquisition in first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the "two concentration" land policy and can obtain land through diversified ways, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc; (3) The construction of indemnificatory rental housing has gradually opened the demand for agent construction, and deeply cultivated the green city management holding (9979. HK) built by the government for many years.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; The sales of commercial houses were lower than expected.
