Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 1218961, down – 2.1%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 344765, down – 0.11%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1302046, down – 2.93%; The CSI 300 index closed at 449643, down – 1.68%; The gem index closed at 274864, down – 3.75%. In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector rose 2.36%, with the largest increase; Wind power equipment sector rose 1.31%; The battery sector fell – 7.95%, with the largest decline; Power grid equipment sector fell – 3.48%; The motor sector fell – 3.78%; Other power equipment sectors fell – 1.76%.
Investment suggestion: the electrical equipment sector fell 2.1% last week, mainly affected by the new energy vehicle sector, and the battery and motor sectors fell sharply. The performance of photovoltaic and wind power is relatively strong and continues to rise. We believe that the current valuation of the photovoltaic sector is reasonable and the future growth of the sector is the most uncertain. In the global environment of high oil and gas prices, it is recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector.
New energy: last week, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report that we should orderly promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization, ensure energy supply and promote low-carbon transformation of energy. In the short term, crude oil and natural gas prices will remain high, and the rise in traditional energy prices will help stimulate the new installed demand for new energy. At present, the off-season situation of PV is not light in the first quarter. The production scheduling of all links is close to full production, and it is expected to exceed expectations in the first quarter. Looking forward to the follow-up, the new capacity of silicon material will continue to be released, and the supply side will be gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. At present, there are investment opportunities in the whole PV sector. The order of segment segmentation is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, it also plays an important role as photovoltaic, and the long-term trend is good. However, the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream host machines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: the price of lithium carbonate rose further, causing concern. At the same time, the data of new energy vehicles in February was mixed, Byd Company Limited(002594) performed well, and the new forces suffered a halving. At present, it remains to be seen whether the sales volume of pure electric vehicles will be affected after the downstream main engine manufacturers raise the price of pure electric vehicles. In addition, lithium supply is likely to become the bottleneck of sales growth of new energy vehicles this year. It is expected that the future will still be dominated by structural market. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and tight production capacity. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: Recently, the price of international bulk commodities continues to maintain an upward trend, creating cost pressure on electrical equipment manufacturing enterprises. In addition, for high-end products with good supply and demand, this will become an opportunity to raise prices, which is worthy of attention to the recent trend of copper and aluminum.
Combination of this week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Crown Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688560) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment Co.Ltd(300129) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition.
