Matters:
On March 2, the German news agency reported that the situation in Russia and Ukraine affected the automobile supply chain, and several automobile enterprises announced the suspension of some production.
Guoxin automobile view:
On the one hand, the conflict between the Russian and Ukrainian auto parts industry or the supply chain of automotive materials will affect the Russian and Ukrainian auto parts industry; On the other hand, automobile exports to Russia and the manufacturing of complete vehicles / parts in Russia may be affected.
Under the influence of the epidemic situation, geopolitics and other comprehensive factors, global commodity prices have continued to rise, the prices of important raw materials for automobile production such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, petroleum, rubber and chips have continued to rise, and the costs of complete vehicles and parts have continued to be under pressure. Since February, some complete vehicle enterprises have officially announced price increases, and the market is worried that the pressure on the supply side will eventually be transmitted to the demand side, The recent correction range of the automobile sector is large. We believe that the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict in the short term, but the electric and intelligent upgrading trend of the automobile industry remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the next 5-10 dimensions. Some parts have fallen to a reasonable valuation level, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend hybrid ( Byd Company Limited(002594) / Great Wall / Geely) / Xiaopeng automobile and other new forces / Tesla / gac-e’an and its industrial chain in the direction of independent rise, and 1) the data flow direction focuses on sensors, domain controllers, wire controlled braking, air suspension, lights, glass, car machine, HUD, car audio and other links. 2) Direction of energy flow: pay attention to power battery, electric drive system, electric control of small and medium-sized micro motors, IGBT, high-voltage harness cable connector and other links. Recommendations for the subject matter include recommendations for ‘s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) etc.
Risk tip: the impact of macro factors such as epidemic situation on production and operation, the risk of automobile chip production capacity, the risk of continuous rise of raw materials, the risk of downward sales caused by terminal price rise, and the risk of transformation of traditional enterprises.
Comments:
The situation in Russia and Ukraine affects the supply of automobile chips, metal materials and parts, and the cost of the industrial chain may rise
Special gases such as neon dominated by Ukraine may affect the short-term supply of automotive chips. In semiconductor manufacturing, neon, krypton, xenon and other special gases are the second largest consumables after silicon wafer (the cost accounts for 13%), which are important materials in excimer laser gas, KrF lithography process and etching process respectively. Ukraine is the main supplier of semiconductor raw gas, accounting for 70% of the world’s neon production (used to produce lasers, and Ukraine supplies 90% of the neon demand of the US chip manufacturing industry), 40% of krypton production and 30% of xenon production. The situation in Russia and Ukraine may affect the short-term situation of chip supply, which is expected to slow down in the future. On the one hand, semiconductor enterprises have continuously improved the diversified supply system in the early lack of core, on the other hand, neon and other raw materials are derived from the by-products of the iron and steel industry with mature production technology, which can realize independent production.
Russia is the main exporter of aluminum, nickel, palladium, platinum and other metal materials, with raw material exports accounting for 4%, 5%, 46% and 15% respectively. Aluminum, nickel, palladium, platinum and other metals are important raw materials for automobile manufacturing. Aluminum benefits from the lightweight demand of new energy vehicles and is used for body structure, interior and exterior decoration, chassis and various box shells (such as battery box, motor shell, etc.); Nickel is used as cathode material of power battery (such as nickel cobalt aluminum battery); Palladium and platinum are used in automobile exhaust purifier (mainly affecting fuel vehicles). Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of relevant raw materials may rise further, and the cost side of automobile enterprises is under pressure.
Some parts companies in Russia and Ukraine shut down or reduced production, and the relevant supply of automobile enterprises was affected. Take the wiring harness system as an example, the factories of anbofu and Sumitomo in Ukraine have withdrawn relevant personnel. Nokia, a Finnish tire company, has transferred key production lines in Russia. The supply of relevant auto enterprises was affected, and Volkswagen (cable shortage in the factory in Saxony, Germany), BMW, Renault and other auto enterprises suspended some production.
Automobile exports to Russia, manufacturing of complete vehicles / parts in Russia or affected
At the export end, some auto enterprises suspended their auto export business to Russia due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (such as Jaguar Land Rover, GM and BMW). The Russian automobile consumption market is relatively stable, with a sales volume of 1.67 million vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4%. Among them, Korean and European cars account for a large proportion. Among them, the total sales volume of Korean Kia / Hyundai in Russia is 370000, ranking second / third in the sales volume of Russian cars respectively. China’s automobile exports to Russia are small. According to the data of the passenger Federation, China exported 123000 vehicles to Russia in 2021 (accounting for 7% of Russian passenger vehicles), with a corresponding income of 12.4 billion yuan. Among them, the sales volume of Haval / Chery / Geely cars in Russia is 3.9/3.725000 respectively, ranking 12th / 13th / 17th in the sales volume of Russian cars respectively.
Renault, Volkswagen, Toyota, Hyundai, great wall and other automobile enterprises have set up vehicle factories in Russia to actively prevent the potential supply interruption risk of vehicle manufacturing in Russia. It is expected that Chinese enterprises will be limited affected: first, some automobile and parts enterprises with factories in Russia and Ukraine have a large scale, and the revenue of Russia and Ukraine market is relatively small; Second, for automobile enterprises with relevant layout in Europe, the suspension of production in some European automobile enterprises’ factories is a short-term impact.
Investment suggestions:
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has two impacts on the automobile industry. On the one hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine affects the supply of automobile chips, metal materials and parts, and the cost of the industrial chain may rise; On the other hand, automobile exports to Russia and the manufacturing of complete vehicles / parts in Russia may be affected.
Under the influence of the epidemic situation, geopolitics and other comprehensive factors, global commodity prices have continued to rise, the prices of important raw materials for automobile production such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, petroleum, rubber and chips have continued to rise, and the costs of complete vehicles and parts have continued to be under pressure. Since February, some complete vehicle enterprises have officially announced price increases, and the market is worried that the pressure on the supply side will eventually be transmitted to the demand side, The recent correction range of the automobile sector is large. We believe that the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict in the short term, but the electric and intelligent upgrading trend of the automobile industry remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the next 5-10 dimensions. Some parts have fallen to a reasonable valuation level, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend hybrid ( Byd Company Limited(002594) / Great Wall / Geely) / Xiaopeng automobile and other new forces / Tesla / gac-e’an and its industrial chain in the direction of independent rise, and 1) the data flow direction focuses on sensors, domain controllers, wire controlled braking, air suspension, lights, glass, car machine, HUD, car audio and other links. 2) Direction of energy flow: pay attention to power battery, electric drive system, electric control of small and medium-sized micro motors, IGBT, high-voltage harness cable connector and other links. Recommendations for the subject matter include recommendations for ‘s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) etc.
Risk tips:
The impact of the epidemic and other macro factors on production and operation, the risk of automobile chip production capacity, the risk of continuous rise of raw materials, the risk of downward sales caused by terminal price rise, and the risk of transformation of traditional enterprises.
