On March 5, 2022, Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report, pointing out: promote the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and their supporting regulatory power sources, and improve the consumption capacity of the power grid for renewable energy power generation.
Energy storage:
1. The allocation and storage of renewable energy is an important way to solve the consumption problem. The government work report emphasizes that the construction of new energy represented by large bases is still advancing in an orderly manner, and the corresponding power generation side energy storage supporting facilities will also be greatly developed. According to the prediction of the white paper 2021 on energy storage industry research, the scale of China's energy storage market will reach 35.5gw in the conservative scenario and 55.9gw in the ideal scenario in 2025. We believe that in the context of double carbon, more energy storage policies are expected to be implemented in 2022, further straighten out the business model of energy storage and accelerate the development of energy storage industry.
2. Valuation: the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range, and the layout value is prominent. Starting from the phased high at the end of November 2021, as of March 4, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 20%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on March 4, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) PE in 2022 / 2023 is 39 / 28 times Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) in 2022 / 2023, PE is 45 / 34 times.
4. Investment suggestion: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. In the process of increasing the proportion of new energy power generation, the requirements for power grid are also gradually increasing. The government work report once again emphasizes the improvement of the consumption capacity of the power grid for renewable energy power generation. We believe that this will bring structural investment opportunities such as UHV and distribution network transformation.
2. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market's expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China's steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on March 4, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 27 times.
3. Investment: under the background of accelerating the construction of new power system, the investment in power grid increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there are great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
