Core view
Logistics: the tide of M & A in the industry has intensified this year. On February 28, Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) announced that its controlling shareholder decided to suspend trading because it was planning major matters related to the change of equity structure. So far, Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) has not resumed trading. The suspension may be related to its merger and reorganization. From the perspective of industry development in recent years, the continuous increase of the concentration of head express logistics enterprises is the general trend, and M & A is undoubtedly an important means. The acceleration and concentration of the industry is conducive to the development of leading enterprises, and we are optimistic about the leading enterprises of comprehensive logistics and three supplies and one delivery.
Shipping port: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a boosting impact on the shipping sector, focusing on the oil transportation sector. In view of the high dependence of Europe on Russian energy, at present, about 2.3 million barrels / day of Russian crude oil flows westward to the export terminals of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea through the pipeline network. The deterioration of the conflict will increase the introduction of oil from non Russian regions in Europe and increase the transportation cost. In addition, the two ministries and commissions have recently adjusted the port rate. 1) cancel the government pricing of port facility safety premium, change it to the market adjusted price, and include the port operation lump sum fee as a sub item, and the charge shall not be higher than the original charge standard, which is not reduced or cancelled; 2) Adjust the charging structure of pilotage (shifting) fees by category and implement price adjustment in different proportions. The directional reduction of fees is not related to the port revenue. We believe that the impact of the policy on the port sector is neutral, and we will continue to pay attention to the adjustment of rates in the future.
Railway and highway: affected by the epidemic, the tourist flow in China during the Spring Festival holiday has decreased compared with previous years. During the 40 day spring festival transportation, the traffic volume of national highways increased by about 2% year-on-year. Among them, 15 days before the Spring Festival (January 17-31) is the trip, and the traffic volume of national highways increased by about 10% year-on-year. In the context of steady growth and rising market risk aversion, we recommend the allocation opportunities of undervalued high dividend sectors.
Airports: the situation in Russia and Ukraine has a limited impact on the civil aviation industry. It is optimistic about the demand for repair of the airport sector in 2022. In the short term, foreign geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated the fluctuation of oil, natural gas and other bulk commodities, and the rise of costs may have a certain impact on the performance of airlines. However, the collection of fuel surcharge has shifted the pressure of some costs to a certain extent. On the whole, in 2022, the aviation sector is facing a pattern of demand restoration and tight supply. Superimposed on the expectation of opening international lines, we believe that civil aviation passenger transport is expected to return to 80% ~ 90% before the epidemic, and continue to be optimistic about the leaders of the three major airlines and private low-cost airlines.
Industry hot spots this week
On March 2, the Ministry of transport and the national development and Reform Commission issued the reduction and merger of port charges and other related matters, cancelled the government pricing of port facility security fees, and included them into the port operation lump sum fee as a sub item. The charging standard of this sub item shall not be higher than the original charging standard. Shenzhen port, Meizhouwan port, Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) , Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) , reduce the benchmark rate of pilotage (relocation) fee by 15%, Shanghai port, Ningbo Zhoushan port, Dalian port, Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) , Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) , Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) , Zhanjiang port, Fuzhou port, Fangcheng port, Weihai port, Huanghua port, Yantai port, Xiamen port and Quanzhou port, reduce the benchmark rate of pilotage (relocation) fee by 10%.
Performance this week
This week: this week (2022.2.282022.3.4), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 week increases were – 0.11% and – 1.68% respectively, and the transportation index was 3.65%; In terms of various sub sectors of transportation, ports – 0.73%, public transportation 2.07%, air transportation – 0.08%, airports 1.55%, highways 1.21%, shipping 5.88%, railway transportation 2.22% and logistics 1.65%. There are many sub sectors of transportation rising this week, among which shipping rose the most, with only three sub sectors of port and air transportation falling.
Head stock gains
The top five stocks in the delivery this week were Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) ( Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) . SH) 46.74%, Jiangxi Changyun Co.Ltd(600561) ( Jiangxi Changyun Co.Ltd(600561) . SH) 21.30%, Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) ( Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) . SH) 16.25%, Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) ( Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) . SZ) 13.55%, Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) ( Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) . SH) 10.10%.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation occurred repeatedly, and the economic growth rate was lower than expected; Risk of sharp rise in oil prices; The development of e-commerce and online shopping demand slowed down more than expected, the construction progress of express network was less than expected, and the competition pattern deteriorated.
