The two sessions were held this week, and the government work report was released. A group of key data showed the central government’s confidence in steady growth in 2022, and the infrastructure construction end is expected to perform better.
The sector fell and underperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 7400.3 points, down 1.8%, underperforming Wande a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 13.54 times, down 0.22 from last week.
The GDP growth target is high, and the steady growth of infrastructure is expected to be strengthened: the two sessions were held, and the government work report transmitted key signals. The economic growth target for 2022 is 5.5%, which is at the upper limit of 5.0% – 5.5% originally expected, which is higher than the average growth rate of 5.1% in the past two years, which shows the confidence of the central government in “steady growth”. In the case of great export uncertainty, the importance of infrastructure has been improved.
The actual usable scale of special bonds is high, the new construction increment of infrastructure is expected to be released, and the cement and pipeline pipes are expected to benefit: the scale of special bonds in 2022 is still 3.65 trillion, the same as that in 2021, but after adding 1.2 trillion carried forward in the fourth quarter of 2021, the actual usable scale is 4.85 trillion, higher than that in 2021. The construction of new infrastructure projects or projects under construction will be the first to benefit from the construction of new infrastructure projects or projects under construction, and priority will be given to the construction of new infrastructure projects or projects under construction. In addition, pipes and pipelines are still the focus of special debt, and the investment direction of special debt emphasizes “building key water conservancy projects, comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, important energy bases and facilities, accelerating the renewal and transformation of urban gas pipelines and other pipe networks, improving flood control and drainage facilities, and continuing to promote the construction of underground comprehensive pipe corridors”.
The 2.8% deficit ratio does not mean that the intensity of fiscal expenditure is reduced: the 2.8% deficit ratio is lower than the 3.2% target of last year. However, last year, the actual fiscal deficit rate was less than 2%, and the government report announced: “it is expected that fiscal revenue will continue to grow this year, the scale of expenditure will expand by more than 2 trillion yuan over last year, and the available financial resources will increase significantly.” Looking back, the fiscal expenditure in 2021 was 24.63 trillion, an increase of only 0.3% at the same time. After an increase of 2 trillion in 2022, it was 26.63 trillion, an increase of 8.1% at the same time, much higher than that in the same period last year. Therefore, the intensity of fiscal expenditure is not worth worrying about.
This week’s data: the operating rate recovered, and the cement price changed little: clinker and P · O42 5、P·S32. 5. The price of powder was 407.7, 476.0 and 452.9 yuan / ton respectively, up 0.8 yuan and 0.5 yuan and down 1.1 yuan compared with last week. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 52.2% and 52.8% respectively, up 37.2% and down 2.1% respectively compared with last week. Compared with last week, the cement price is generally flat and not only changes, but with the stop of peak staggering in many provinces, the operating rate has rebounded significantly. With the warming of temperature and the increase of infrastructure construction, the cement landscape is expected to improve.
Key recommendation
The cement industry recommends Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , and it is suggested to pay attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ; Plastic pipe recommends ad shares and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu; Waterproof recommendation Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; The glass industry recommends Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , a flat glass faucet with relatively low valuation, and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , a medicinal glass faucet with flexible volume and price; Recommended by glass fiber industry China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ; Recommended water reducing agent Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
