Key investment points
The two sessions emphasized the healthy development of real estate and were optimistic about the bottom recovery of data, driving the performance of the home sector
The government work report of the two sessions was released this week. The 22-year economic growth target is set at 5.5%, which is the upper limit of market expectations, while the two-year compound growth rate from 19 to 21 is 5.2%, and the growth rate in 21q4 is 4%, showing the government's determination to stabilize the economic growth in 22 years. As a pillar industry of GDP, the steady development of real estate is very important.
(1) it is mentioned in the report that we should adhere to the basic tone of no speculation in housing, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. It is optimistic that the subsequent real estate commencement and sales data will stabilize and pick up, and the corresponding comprehensive home valuation will move up steadily and be recommended by sectors.
(2) at the same time, the report does not mention the real estate tax we are concerned about. We believe that its promotion may alleviate the market's concerns to a certain extent after the real estate market stabilizes.
(3) the report emphasizes the need to promote consumption and expand demand in the next 22 years. At the same time, we should promote residents' income through multiple channels, improve consumption capacity, boost demand through income increase, and benefit the recovery of consumption. At the same time, we re emphasized the revitalization of rural areas, and were optimistic about the rising consumption demand in the third and fourth tier cities and county-level markets. Combined with the previous furniture to the countryside policy, we were optimistic about the contribution of the offline market to the increase of demand.
The two ministries and commissions support the needs of new citizens: on March 4, the CBRC and the central bank issued the notice on strengthening the financial services of new citizens, which mainly includes: 1) implement differentiated housing credit policies according to urban policies, reasonably determine the first house of new citizens that meets the purchase conditions, and improve the convenience of borrowing and repayment according to the standard of uncovering loans; 2) For new citizens who meet the requirements of the house purchase policy, have the ability to buy houses and have a relatively stable income, reasonably meet their house purchase credit needs; 3) In view of the differentiated financial needs of new citizens in the transition stage of entering the city and settling down, reasonably provide consumer credit products for them to buy furniture, household appliances and so on. At present, there are about 300 million new citizens in China. In the new round of urbanization, new citizens' leasing and real estate will bring incremental demand to the home market.
Many local governments continued to launch support policies, including the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in Zhengzhou on March 1, the reduction of down payment ratio in Dezhou (30% → 20%) on March 3, the deregulation of sales restrictions in Jimo District, Qingdao, the reduction of down payment ratio in Tangshan on March 4, and the relaxation of down payment ratio requirements of 20% in Kunming, which were mainly concentrated in the weak second tier and third and fourth tier markets. We believe that there will be more policy support to ensure reasonable demand, correct deviation and excessive control in the follow-up, and the policy repair is far from over. We are optimistic about the bottom recovery of real estate sales growth.
\u3000\u3000 β The end environment is expected to improve, and attention is paid to strengthening α Increase of leading share and excess growth
With the firm determination of the government to stabilize growth and real estate β In the context of stabilization, we believe that the core of this round is to focus on the expansion of the leading edge of the leaders and the dimensionality reduction of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the long-term share increase deserves more attention.
Building medium and long-term competitiveness: from the perspective of recovery, in recent years, the domestic sales growth rate of europai, gujia, Minhua and Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) is higher than that of social zero data, reflecting the leader's counter trend expansion of market share and continuous improvement of concentration. We believe that the leader has built a strong multi-dimensional structure around package sales, supply chain efficiency improvement, digital ability improvement, medium and Taiwan product power improvement and so on α Competitiveness and continuous guarantee of future share improvement:
(1) package sales is the most effective way to improve the single value of customers: the single value package of customized home + software matching + household appliances / kitchen electricity is the biggest focus of 315 leading marketing in 2022. From 2 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 000 single value of a single cabinet in the past, it has been raised to 4 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 one-stop solution of the package. From selling single products to selling space, the single value of customers has increased. Europay and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) packages have more cooperation brands and higher cost performance, reflecting the advantages of leading brands in improving the voice at the end of the supply chain; At the same time, the family's self-made and high-quality package is also worthy of attention.
(2) leading digital capability: the information system and digital operation of stores continue to widen the gap between leading brands and small brands in the second and third tier of the industry. For example, europay invests a large amount of research and development every year to optimize the CAXA system, realize one software solution in the front, middle and back office, have the ability of automatic error reporting, humanized operation and design, and significantly improve the billing efficiency of designers by 30-50%, At the same time, the internal cost is reduced; For example, after the information system of gujia and Minhua stores is laid, they have a comprehensive control over the sales & inventory and user portrait of each SKU in the terminal stores, and feed back the improvement of product power.
(3) supply chain integration, warehouse distribution and service: europay's dry warehouse distribution system is the most mature, and the last mile problem has been solved, so as to improve the satisfaction of dealers and consumers, and optimize the cost of miscellaneous links; Gu Jia and Minhua are also promoting the distribution of services in the central warehouse to improve the efficiency of the supply chain.
In the short term: (1) we tracked that the order receiving situation of the household leader from January to February is generally good, and the 315 promotion package is attractive. It is expected to help the leader better realize the locking of customers throughout the year, and we are optimistic about the fulfillment of the annual performance. (2) With regard to the profit margin, the market is worried that the high cost performance of 315 package will be negatively affected by the expected rise in the price of raw materials under the Russian Ukrainian war. We believe that 315 home promotion package basically plays the role of guiding and locking customers. After arriving at the store, the sales guide will actually extend value-added products through words and increase the actual transaction price; Moreover, when the price of bulk raw materials increased last year, leading brands generally raised prices smoothly or stabilized the domestic profit margin through product portfolio optimization. It is expected that the impact on the leading profit margin is relatively controllable.
Investment advice
Maintain key recommendations for the home furnishing sector: (1) Baima Longtou Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Minhua holdings, multi-dimensional construction of leading advantages, strong growth certainty and smooth share promotion logic. (2) High growth and undervalued elastic target investment opportunities, the most recommended operation inflection point is Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year PE is 13.8x), and pay attention to Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (22-year PE is 15.6x), Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (high growth in equity incentive plan, 22-year PE is 17.7x).
Risk tips
The industry competition intensifies, the real estate policy is tightened again, and the cost of raw materials rises sharply.
