The double carbon work arrangement mentioned in the government work report is in line with the central government’s early ideas, which is expected to accelerate the increase of renewable energy and ensure that there is no worry about the medium-term space for new energy power generation; Maintain the rating that the industry is stronger than the market.
The government work report again mentioned the direction of double carbon work: on March 5, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened at the Great Hall of the people in Beijing. In his government work report, Premier Li Keqiang proposed to orderly promote carbon neutralization and implement the action plan for carbon peaking. Promote the energy revolution, ensure energy supply, based on resource endowments, adhere to the first establishment and then destruction, and make overall plans to promote the low-carbon transformation of energy.
Promote the construction of large bases and improve the consumption capacity of power grids: the government work report proposes to strengthen the clean and efficient utilization of coal, orderly reduce and replace coal, and promote the transformation of coal power energy conservation and carbon reduction, flexibility and heating. Promote the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and their supporting regulatory power sources, and improve the consumption capacity of the power grid for renewable energy power generation.
The idea of safe carbon reduction and promoting dual control of carbon emission is expected to accelerate the increase of renewable energy: the statement of dual carbon work in the report continues the previous thinking of the central government and proposes to resolutely curb the blind development of high energy consumption, high emission and low-level projects; The target of energy consumption intensity shall be comprehensively assessed within the “14th five year plan” period, and appropriate flexibility shall be reserved. The new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption shall not be included in the total energy consumption control; Promote the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity. We believe that it is expected to accelerate the installation of new renewable energy power generation.
The recent demand is good, and the price center of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to move up: after the short inventory clearing of the industry chain at the end of 2021, the price of terminal components has dropped to 1.8-1.9 yuan / W. however, since the commencement after the Spring Festival, the demand for photovoltaic terminals is good, and the prices of silicon, silicon wafer and cell module have regained the upward trend from top to bottom, showing good demand toughness. According to the news of the national energy administration, the development of wind power photovoltaic started well in 2022. In January, the new installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic in China exceeded 12gw, and the consumption and utilization rate of wind and solar power remained at a high level. We expect that under the expectation of 220240gw terminal demand in 2022, the price center of photovoltaic industry chain is expected to be higher than the previous market expectation.
With the continuous offshore and onshore bidding, the installed capacity of wind power is expected to grow rapidly: under the condition that the price of wind turbines has fallen more than expected and the economy of onshore wind power has been fully demonstrated, the new bidding volume of wind farms in China has remained at a high level in the quarter. The bid winning capacity of wind power projects has exceeded 10GW from January to February 2022, which continues to guide the increase of installed capacity demand; The economic efficiency of offshore wind power is accelerated. The unit price of wind turbine in the new bid opening from 2021q4 to 2022q1 is reduced to 38004700 yuan / kW, or the wind power demand in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan is further increased; We estimate that from 2022 to 2023, the installed capacity of new wind power in China will be about 53gw and 72gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33% and 36%.
Investment suggestion: the double carbon work arrangement mentioned in the government work report is in line with the central government’s early ideas, and is expected to accelerate the increase of renewable energy, and there is no worry about the medium-term space of new energy power generation. The demand toughness of PV outside China exceeded expectations, the annual price center of the industrial chain is expected to move upward, the production scheduling of the manufacturing industry is expected to guide the release of follow-up demand, the target of high growth rate is expected to be optimized to meet the challenges of the production capacity cycle, and the industrialization of hjt and TOPCON batteries is promoted in an all-round way. The inflection point of wind power boom is advanced, the demand for offshore wind power may be accelerated, and the supply chain of parts and components may be tight at different stages. Recommendations include the recommendation of ‘ Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\fora series of suggestions, such as the end of the\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) Etc.
Risk warning: price competition exceeds expectations; Adverse fluctuations in raw material prices; New energy policy risks; International trade friction risk; Technical iteration risk; Risk absorption; The cost performance of new photovoltaic technology does not meet expectations; Large scale cost reduction does not meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
