1) silicon material: the price has increased slightly continuously, with a slight increase of 0.4% month on month. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the price of dense material this week was 246000 / ton, with a slight increase of 0.4% month on month. Since the beginning of January 2022, the price of silicon material has rebounded continuously. The main reasons are as follows: 1) China’s installed projects in 2021 have been postponed to the first quarter of this year. Overseas regions such as India have strong installed demand, the operating rate of downstream components and silicon wafer enterprises has been increasing, and the demand for silicon material has increased unabated; 2) Since the beginning of this week, the long list of silicon materials in March has entered the period of centralized negotiation and transaction. All mainstream silicon material manufacturers in China have begun to quote. At the same time, the landing orders of silicon materials in the market are also gradually increasing. Some silicon material enterprises said that the long list of polycrystalline silicon in March has been basically signed; 3) The price of silicon wafer rises and the acceptance of silicon material increases. Looking forward to the follow-up, the operating rate of silicon wafer continues to increase. The output of silicon wafer is expected to increase by 1-2gw month on month in March. The silicon material supply is less than the increment of demand. It is expected that the silicon material price may continue to increase slightly in the short term, and the decline of silicon material price in the whole year may be less than the market expectation.
2) silicon wafer: the operating rate increased, 182, up 1.1% month on month. The price of silicon wafers continued to rise, and the response demand continued to be strong. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the average price of single crystal 166 / 182 / 210 silicon wafer was about 5.43, 6.52 and 8.60 yuan / wafer, with a month on month increase of 1.5%, 1.1% and 1.2%. The purchase enthusiasm of battery chips is high, and the demand increment is higher than the supply increment of silicon chips. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the operating rate of the two front-line enterprises increased to 75%, the operating rate of integrated enterprises was 80% – 100%, and the operating rate of other enterprises remained between 75% – 100%; In March, most enterprises have plans to expand production, and it is expected that the output in March will increase by 1-3gw month on month. The subsequent silicon wafer price does not rule out the possibility of further rise.
3) battery: the transaction price continued to rise, with a month on month increase of 0.9%. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the mainstream transaction prices of 166 / 182 / 210 battery chips were about 1.10 yuan / W, 1.13 yuan / W and 1.14 yuan / W respectively, with a month on month increase of 0.9%, 0.9% and 1.8% respectively; In the case of strong downstream demand and improved component production scheduling, the demand for battery chips has also warmed up, and the rebound of silicon materials and silicon chips has also driven the demand for battery chips. It is expected that the price of subsequent battery chips will still be increased by 1-2 points / W, but considering the acceptance of components, the space is limited.
4) components: the price has not been significantly adjusted. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the mainstream transaction prices of 166 / 182 / 210 components this week were 1.86 yuan / W, 1.88 yuan / W and 1.88/w respectively, unchanged month on month. The price of components generally began to rise in the upstream, and there was no obvious adjustment. However, affected by the price rise in the upstream and the price rise of auxiliary raw materials, some component enterprises are brewing to increase the price. The bidding price of components has increased recently, but it is also necessary to consider the acceptance of the downstream. In terms of hjt components, the price of hjt components fluctuates little, and the mainstream price this week is concentrated between 2-2.1 yuan / W. Looking forward to the first quarter, the demand remains strong. In February, the utilization rate of front-line component manufacturers reached 60-75%, and even some large vertically integrated manufacturers are expected to be full. According to our research, the production scheduling of leading component enterprises increased by about 15% – 20% month on month in March. In terms of shipments, the first-line component manufacturers are expected to be flat month on month, and the shipments of Longji, Jingao and Jingke are expected to be 10GW +, 8GW + and 8GW +.
5) auxiliary materials: the price of photovoltaic glass increased slightly this week, and the price of adhesive film has not changed yet. This week, the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was maintained at 26 yuan / m2 and the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass was maintained at 20 m2. Due to strong downstream demand, photovoltaic glass rebounded slightly this week; EVA film is maintained at 13.5 yuan / m2, Poe film is maintained at 15.5 yuan / m2, and the film price remains unchanged. From the perspective of raw materials, the operating rate of soda ash industry this week was 87.77%, up 3% month on month. Due to strong downstream demand, the inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to decline this week, with a total of 1296600 tons, a decrease of 102000 tons month on month. The EVA market continued to pick up this week, with the price of foaming material rising to 20800 yuan / ton and the price of cable material rising to 23000 yuan / ton, up 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) yuan / ton compared with the low price in the early stage. According to Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) announcement, the EVA device will be shut down on February 28 for technical upgrading and capacity expansion. The estimated shutdown time is 28 days. It is expected that the supply of EVA particles will be in short supply in March, and the price has room for upward growth.
