Key changes this week (02280304): ① the 2022 government work report puts forward that China's GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5% this year and the special debt is 365 million. ② Cement prices in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai rose by 20-40 yuan / ton this week. ③ This week, the mainstream large single price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 26 yuan / m2, up 4% month on month. ④ On March 1, Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau made it clear that the total scale of offshore wind power development plan was 35gw, which was significantly higher than expected.
Core view:
(1) continue to be optimistic about the to C retail model, and be optimistic about just need support + real estate boom repair. Superimposed on the slowdown of hardcover, we continue to be optimistic about the retail and distribution model and pay attention to cash flow and profit margin. Core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit and concentric circle speed-up; Focus on [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] and [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] at the C-end.
(2) the start of construction accelerated in March, and the Yangtze River Delta took the lead in raising prices: this week, the civil market in the Yangtze River Delta accelerated the recovery, the shipment rate in the South recovered 60%, and the North maintained 2-30%. On March 1, the price of cement in Northern Zhejiang increased as scheduled, followed by Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou and Shanghai. The inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, 64% at present, and 63.88% in the same period last year. The price increase in the Yangtze River Delta is of exemplary significance to the whole country.
(3): the real estate chain is expected to stabilize and recover from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market, and the contribution of the real estate chain is expected to improve marginally. After Ganzhou, Chongqing, Heze and other second and third tier cities reduced the down payment ratio, the first-line housing loan policies in Guangzhou and Hangzhou were also loosened. From February 21, the six major banks in Guangzhou collectively reduced the housing loan interest rate. On February 23, the mortgage interest rate of the first and second homes in Hangzhou was reduced, and the subsequent trading volume data of new houses and second-hand houses are expected to improve. Real estate sales is the source of confidence. Although some real estate enterprises still have the possibility of bond default in the near future, and the enterprise side risk has not been completely cleared, the overall process is coming to an end. In mid February, the "national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing" was issued to improve the flexibility of the use of pre-sale funds and solve the liquidity of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. After the policy bottoms out, the small cycle of real estate is expected to recover, and the data of sales, commencement, construction and completion are gradually improved. At the current time point, the dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest paying attention to two spaces: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. A low to high sort of a low to high valuation: a low to high sort of a low to a high: a low to high sort of a low to a high: a low to a low to a low to a high: a low to a high to sort: the [[China United Plastic] for the [ ofthe valuation of a low to a low to a low to a high to sort: the [China United Plastic [China United Plastic] [[ 's [ ofchina's associated plastic [ 's 30073 [ for the 30073of a Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\[ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ].
(4) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof. In January, social finance greatly exceeded expectations, and there was no shortage of projects and funds for infrastructure, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1 economy. Growth + cycle focus on the water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus on [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], stability + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ].
(5) glass inventory continued to rise, with a total of 46.72 million weight boxes of original films this week, an increase of 13.29% over last week. It is suggested to closely follow up the capital repair of the real estate chain, the recovery of completion demand and cost support, and the relevant subject [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ].
(6) new materials throughout the year: carbon fiber, glass fiber, UTG glass, photovoltaic glass, wind power grouting slurry, medicinal glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
