Granular silicon: the first 20000 ton granular silicon project in China has been put into operation; The total production capacity of GCL granular silicon reaches 30000 tons
1) according to the China Securities Network (March 6) of Shanghai Stock Exchange, poly GCL Xuzhou has added 20000 tons of silane fluidized bed granular silicon, which has been put into operation, and the total production capacity of granular silicon has reached 30000 tons. The construction of the capacity was completed in October 2021 and officially put into operation in November 2021. It is the first 20000 ton modular granular silicon project of GCL. In the future, Leshan, Baotou and other projects will take this as the benchmark temsector.
2) the relevant person in charge of poly GCL said that it is expected that the production capacity of all silicon materials will reach 360000 tons by the end of 2022, including 300000 tons of FBR granular silicon (expected to be 100000 tons of Xuzhou + Leshan + Baotou) and 60000 tons of Siemens rod silicon. At present, the company's total silicon material capacity is expected to be about 130000 tons, including about 100000 tons of Siemens silicon material capacity (Xuzhou + Xinjiang) and 30000 tons of Xuzhou granular silicon capacity.
Granular silicon: the advantages are becoming obvious, the gross profit margin is 15 percentage points higher than that of rod silicon, and the carbon emission reduction is reduced by 60% - 70%
1) product quality: the world's major downstream manufacturers have fully passed the grain drawing test of granular silicon, and the metal content, carbon content, donor impurities and acceptor impurities all meet the n-type material standard, which can greatly improve the uniformity and stability of single crystal quality for downstream customers. With CCZ continuous feeding technology in the medium and long term, the consistency of electrical performance indexes of rod head and tail is higher than that of rod silicon and granular silicon, and it is more suitable for pulling n-type silicon wafer.
2) cost: the power consumption per kilogram has been reduced to below 18 degrees, which is about two-thirds lower than that of the improved Siemens method. Manufacturing end: the comprehensive production cost is about 30% lower than that of rod silicon. Application end: reduce the cost of long crystal link by nearly 20%. In the medium and long term, granular silicon (fuller crucible and higher unit yield) + CCZ (continuous Czochralski single crystal) is expected to further reduce cost and increase efficiency, and it is expected to comprehensively reduce cost by 20% - 30% in the two links of silicon material and silicon wafer.
3) profitability: according to the announcement of poly GCL on January 24, 2022, the profit advantage of granular silicon has initially appeared. Under the condition of the sharp rise in the price of raw material industrial silicon and silicon material, the gross profit margin of granular silicon is about 15 percentage points higher than that of rod silicon.
4) capacity planning: several 100000 ton capacity bases have been formed in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, Leshan, Sichuan and Baotou, Inner Mongolia. At present, the total planned capacity of granular silicon is 500000 tons.
5) production cycle: the construction cycle of granular silicon production capacity is more than 1 year, while the traditional Siemens rod silicon needs nearly 2 years; The production speed is greatly shortened, the imbalance of silicon material supply is solved, and the penetration of granular silicon in the market is accelerated.
6) it is easier to obtain energy consumption indicators and expand production: granular silicon saves electricity by 70%, carbon emission reduction decreases by 60% - 70%, and comprehensive power consumption decreases by more than 70%. The energy consumption index is easier to pass and the expansion of production is more smooth. Accelerate the promotion of photovoltaic as the main force of "carbon neutralization".
7) no crushing cost and reduce the risk of secondary pollution: reduce the crushing cost and eliminate the risk of introducing impurities in the crushing process; Granular silicon has transportation advantages, effectively reducing packaging and manual links, realizing feeding automation and reducing the possibility of secondary pollution.
8) orders: Longji, Zhonghuan, Jingao, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) all signed long-term purchase contracts with GCL (including granular silicon). At present, the use proportion of mainstream manufacturers has increased significantly compared with that before, and the supply of granular silicon products is in short supply.
Looking forward to the future: the large-scale industrialization of granular silicon is accelerating! We look forward to entering the stage of large-scale replication to help reduce the cost of photovoltaic
(1) poly GCL energy has a mass production capacity of 10000 tons in Xuzhou. Our rough estimation shows that the probability of success may exceed 60%;
(2) Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and GCL jointly produce granular silicon: downstream customers end up in person, indicating that the probability of success may exceed 70%;
(3) Jingao purchases 150000 tons of granular silicon, while Longji, Zhonghuan and Shuangliang all purchase granular silicon, indicating that the probability of success may exceed 80%;
(4) GCL Xuzhou successfully added 20000 tons of mass production, which will enter the replication stage, indicating that the success probability may exceed 90%;
(5) if Baotou ( Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and GCL joint venture) and Leshan base are mass-produced, it is basically judged to be 100% successful.
In the future, we will continue to pay attention to: the improvement of granular silicon production capacity, the breakthrough of CCZ continuous feeding technology, and the localization of key equipment
Investment suggestion: key recommendation: Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) ("silicon wafer + silicon material + industrial silicon" integrated layout, subject of A-share scarcity); Optimistic: Poly GCL energy (granular silicon, H-share), Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) (granular silicon CCZ long crystal furnace).
Risk warning: the risk of photovoltaic products or technology substitution; The downstream expansion is less than expected; The impact of the epidemic on overseas demand.
