Events
Kerry released the top 100 sales list of Chinese real estate enterprises from January to February 2022.
The monthly equity sales amount of the top 100 in February was – 46.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 5.8pct compared with the previous value
According to the calculation of Kerui data, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 in February was – 46.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 5.8pct compared with the previous value; From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of full caliber cumulative sales amount decreased by 2.7 percentage points to – 43.4%. From the perspective of equity, the equity sales amount of the top 100 in February was – 47.8% year-on-year, with a decrease of 5.5pct compared with the previous value; From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative equity sales decreased by 2.6 percentage points to – 44.8%. In February, the real estate market continued its downward trend, with the single month equity caliber and full caliber slowdown expanding. The reason lies in I) demand side: the demand for home purchase during the Spring Festival in February was not as expected. According to the monitoring data of the central index, during the Spring Festival in 2022 (from January 31 to February 6), the transaction area of newly-built commercial houses in 9 cities (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Jiangsu, Wenzhou, Han, Qing, Rong and Lian) decreased by 51% compared with the Spring Festival last year. II) supply side: the Spring Festival holiday affects the promotion rhythm of the real estate industry. Affected by the two centralized land supply, the supply of key cities was insufficient in February, and the overall supply has not warmed up significantly.
The market operates at a low temperature, and the thresholds of all echelons are down during the adjustment period
From January to February, the cumulative threshold of full caliber top3 / 10 / 20 / 50 / 100 changed by – 398, – 202, – 157, – 46 and – 2.2 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. The threshold decreased, and the threshold of top3 changed the most. Among them, the February of top1-3 / 4-10 / 11-20 / 21-50 / 51-100 was – 31.6%, – 50.8%, – 58.1%, – 51.9%, – 32.5% respectively, with changes of + 8.6, – 7.3, – 18.5, – 13.7 and + 10.2 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value. From the perspective of equity, the single month year-on-year figures of top1-3 / 4-10 / 11-20 / 21-50 / 51-100 were – 37.7%, – 53.2%, – 57.8%, – 50.6%, – 35.1% respectively, and the changes compared with the previous values were + 7.8, – 8.3, – 15.7, – 13.0 and + 7.8 percentage points respectively. It can be seen that the sales threshold of the top 100 in a single month decreased significantly in February, and the market downward pressure is still large in the short term.
Investment advice
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “real estate loan concentration management” and “two concentration of land supply” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. Since the beginning of 2022, the regulatory authorities have publicly stated for many times that they want to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market, such as the relaxation of the supervision of pre-sale funds, the reduction of the first down payment ratio to 20% in some cities and the reduction of mortgage interest rates in many cities. Although there is a trend of short-term credit easing on the policy side, the long-term recovery still depends on the improvement of both supply and demand. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. Attention: , ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips
The real estate regulation policy has become stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital has been greatly tightened.
