Market performance:
The Shanghai Composite Index fell – 0.1% this week to close at 344765 points; Gem refers to – 3.8% this week, closing at 274864 points; CSI 300 – 1.7% this week, closing at 449643. The real estate sector + 1.2%, ranking seventh among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 26.9% year-on-year and + 16.9% month on month
This week (2.25-3.3), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focus on tracking is about 2.64 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 26.9% and a month on month increase of + 16.9%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 710000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.8% and a month on month increase of – 12.8%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 1.45 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 17.6% and a month on month increase of + 45.6%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 480000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 46.2% and a month on month increase of + 7.2%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 47.7% year-on-year and + 8.4% month on month
This week (2.25-3.3), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focus on tracking is about 850000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 47.7% and a month on month increase of + 8.4%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 330000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.9% and a month on month increase of + 6.5%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 360000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.7% and a month on month increase of + 10.8%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 170000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.6% and a month on month increase of + 7.0%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was -1.88% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 10.7 months
As of March 3, 2022, this week, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking was about 88.03 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 1.88%. The overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about 10.7 months. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 28.28 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 4.91%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.1 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) was 32.36 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 1.00%, and the decontamination cycle was 9.3 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) was 27.4 million m3, a month on month increase of + 0.37%, and the decontamination cycle was 22.5 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 17.64 million square meters, the total land transaction price is 10.1 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 2.10%
Last week (February 21-february 27), the number of land supply in Baicheng was 476, with a corresponding land supply construction area of about 29.15 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 281, with the corresponding land construction area of about 17.64 million square meters, the total price of land transactions is about 10.1 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 2.10%. Among them, the land transaction and construction area of the first, second and third tier cities were 1.11 million m3, 6.97 million m3 and 9.56 million m3 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 10%, – 14% and – 56% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rates were 0.00%, + 1.09% and + 2.60% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress was held in Beijing. The meeting stressed that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices Stabilize expectations and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to the implementation of urban policies. The following four aspects are the continuation of the previous policies: 1) due to the implementation of urban policies, stabilize land price, house price and expectation. Recently, the second and third tier cities represented by Zhengzhou have successively relaxed regulation and control, mainly to stabilize market expectations and guide the market to warm up; On the other hand, the core tier one and tier two cities still have not relaxed the “four limits”, which reflects the characteristics of implementing policies according to the city and one policy for one city. 2) Meet the demand for just needed and reasonable house purchase, and give certain credit support. For example, the proportion of the first set of down payment loans in many places has been reduced to 20%, and the housing loan interest rate has decreased. 3) We will accelerate the construction of affordable rental housing. Promoting the policy of affordable rental housing is an important part of continuing to implement the long-term mechanism of the real estate market, which is consistent with the “exploring new development mode, adhering to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, accelerating the development of long-term rental housing market and promoting the construction of affordable housing” mentioned again in the central economic work conference in December 2021. 4) New urbanization and orderly urban renewal. In January 2022, the National Conference on housing and urban and rural construction was held. The conference proposed “taking the implementation of urban renewal as a major strategic measure to promote high-quality urban development”. This time again emphasizes “improving the quality of new urbanization”, focusing on the optimization of urban structure and quality improvement, which is expected to drive a certain amount of incremental house purchase demand.
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply” and “pilot reform of real estate tax” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. The regulation of wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large-scale expansion is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. In the future, the low base effect subsided, the fundamentals were under pressure in early 2022, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy has become stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital has been greatly tightened.
