Pattern: the negative electrode is three big and four small, and the product market stratification leads to relative dispersion and stability
Negative electrode material is one of the four key materials of lithium battery, and the cost accounts for about 8%. Although natural graphite has the advantages of cost and specific capacity, artificial graphite performs better in cycle performance, safety performance and charge discharge ratio, with a market share of more than 80%. The market share of natural graphite is highly concentrated, while the market of artificial graphite is still relatively scattered. The product positioning of each negative electrode manufacturer mainly brings about the price and market stratification, resulting in a relatively decentralized and stable situation. At present, the negative electrode material market has formed a pattern of three major and four small ones, which has not yet stepped out of the absolute leader. There is no absolute gap between the “three major” enterprises, and the “four small” cities account for a similar proportion, with a strong willingness to catch up with the “three major”.
Process: high graphitization cost, mainstream of box furnace, continuous graphitization or innovation direction
The process of artificial graphite negative electrode is complex. Graphitization is the key link of production and preparation. Production experience is extremely key. At the same time, it is a link with high energy consumption. The electricity charge accounts for 60% of the graphitization cost, while the graphitization cost accounts for 55% of the manufacturing cost of artificial graphite negative electrode. Reducing the graphitization power consumption is the key to reducing the cost. Improvement of furnace loading mode: various negative electrode enterprises gradually replace and select box type furnace. Compared with crucible, box type furnace reduces power consumption by 40% – 50%, which is environmentally friendly, but the process is difficult. Therefore, only a few leading enterprises have stable production capacity at present; From the improvement of operation mode: continuous graphitization or innovation direction, the advantages of continuous graphitization over batch method lie in high product consistency, greatly reducing power consumption and shortening production cycle. The disadvantage is that the degree of graphitization is low. At present, it is mainly used in the field of low-end power, and the mass production technology needs to be broken through.
Supply and demand: the gap between supply and demand of graphitization remains, the integrated self supply rate increases by 25 PCT, and the gross profit margin increases by 8 PCT
Supply side: due to local production and power restrictions, the operating rate of graphitization capacity is low, the supply is in short supply, and the graphitization price rises. It is estimated that the graphitization capacity in 22 / 23 years will be 1.11/1.53 million tons. Demand side: it is estimated that the shipment volume of artificial graphite in 22 / 23 years will be 791040000 tons, and the demand for graphitization will be 878 / 1156000 tons. Under the neutral assumption, there is a graphitization gap in 22 / 23 years, which is – 65 / – 84000 tons respectively; Under conservative assumptions, the graphitization gap is further widened, which is – 181000 / – 237000 tons respectively.
Consideration of integrated layout: the self supply rate of graphitization increased by 25 PCT, the gross profit margin increased by 8 PCT, and the negative impact of the rising price of graphitization and the rising price of raw materials was offset and reversed by the rising self supply rate of enterprises. The profit per ton increased instead of decreasing. The gross profit per ton is expected to rise from 25% in 21 years to more than 36% in 23 years, an increase of about 11 PCT. According to our calculation, when the self supply rate increases by 25%, the gross profit rate per ton will increase by about 8pct.
Investment advice
We suggest paying attention to Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , which has a high self supply rate of graphitization, expanding its production rapidly and is expected to become a first-line manufacturer Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , which is in a stable position and has a leading technology, and Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , which is driven by both artificial graphite and natural graphite.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Graphitization capacity expansion was less than expected.
