Industry Overview:
From the performance of each sub sector of transportation relative to CSI 300, the overall recovery of transportation sector is obvious this week (February 28 – March 4). The railway transportation sector rose 2.14% this week. Railway: the Yangtze River Delta railway construction has issued an investment plan of 68.6 billion yuan to maintain a high level of operation
In terms of international railway transportation, under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, China EU trains are still in normal operation, but it is more difficult to organize goods sources. Shippers and freight forwarders reduce or suspend service reservations, or turn to China EU shipping routes far away from the war zone, or exacerbate cargo transportation delays and rising freight costs. At present, the Russian railway company has been included in the sanctions list of the United States, but the transit goods of Russia are not included in the sanctions, and the China Europe train is still in normal operation. The main channel of the China EU train passes through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland to Germany, the Netherlands and other EU countries. A small number of trains will transit Ukraine to Hungary. Therefore, the impact of the local war in Ukraine is not obvious. However, shippers and freight forwarders will take unilateral measures to mitigate risks. For example, flexport has stopped booking Trans Siberian railway services, and Maersk announced that its intercontinental line to and from Russia will be temporarily suspended.
The railway construction investment in the Yangtze River Delta has maintained a high level. At present, an investment plan of 68.6 billion yuan has been issued. The high-speed rail network is accelerating its connection and enhancing the profitability of high-speed rail enterprises. On March 4, China Railway Shanghai Bureau Group Co., Ltd. disclosed that the railway construction investment in the Yangtze River Delta remained high in 2022, and the investment plan has been issued with 68.6 billion yuan. In 2022, the Yangtze River Delta railway plans to open the Huzhou Hangzhou railway, promote the construction of 17 projects such as the South Riverside intercity railway, Shanghai Suzhou Huzhou railway and Hangzhou Wenzhou Railway, and ensure that the construction of five projects such as Shanghai Nanjing Hefei section of Shanghai Chongqing Chengdu high-speed railway, Hefei Wuhan section of Shanghai Chongqing Chengdu high-speed railway, Tongsu Jiayong railway, Hefei Suqian railway and capacity expansion and reconstruction of Nanjing Wuhu will be started within the year, Do a good job in the preliminary work of the three projects of Suqian Sixian section of Hefei Suqian high-speed railway, capacity expansion and reconstruction of Pudong Railway and capacity expansion of Beilun branch line, and strive to meet the conditions for construction within this year. In 2021, the Yangtze River Delta railway completed a capital investment of 90.19 billion yuan, ranking first in the country for six consecutive years, and the mileage of new lines put into operation during the year was 585.2 kilometers. By the end of 2021, the operating mileage of the Yangtze River Delta railway has reached 133743 kilometers, including 6329 kilometers of high-speed railway.
It is suggested to focus on Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) . 1) The epidemic has repeatedly affected the recovery of passenger flow, and the subsequent repair of high-speed railway will be significantly faster than that of ordinary railway. 2) Capacity and ticket price space have been opened. The train diagram in the third quarter of 2021 has greatly improved the capacity space of high-speed railway. The ticket price of second-class seat of benchmark train is implemented according to the “published ticket price” of 662 yuan. A more flexible pricing method may be implemented in the future. 3) In the follow-up, more high-speed rail networks will be connected, and the intersection area where Beijing Fuzhou Anhui is located will play an advantageous role, undertaking more passenger flows to the north or south, and the speed of turning losses into profits in Beijing Fuzhou Anhui may exceed expectations. 4) The operation of Jingfu Anhui is gradually mature, and there is room for improvement in the proportion of follow-up dividends
