Event:
On March 5, the government work report of the national two sessions proposed to continue to ensure the housing needs of the masses. Adhere to the positioning that houses are for living rather than speculation, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies.
Brief comment
The real estate industry will continue to play the role of economic stabilizer this year, and the policy care is more worthy of expectation. The government work report sets the GDP growth target of about 5.5% in 2022, which is the upper limit of market expectation, showing the government’s determination to achieve steady growth this year. In addition to strengthening infrastructure and expanding domestic demand, real estate investment is also expected to become an important driving point. At present, the real estate industry still has the blocking point of market downturn and sales decline, which can not form a virtuous circle. Therefore, under the overall requirements of stable growth, the space for urban policy implementation is expected to continue to consolidate in order to stabilize market expectations, so as to promote the contribution of the real estate industry to the economy.
The relaxation of core demand side policies has been gradually touched, and the regulation has expressed a more positive attitude towards industry risk regulation. Recently, the relaxation of real estate policies in second tier cities began to touch on loan and sales restrictions, which has important signal significance, and other places are expected to follow up. On March 1, Zhengzhou issued a document saying “recognizing loans but not houses” and implemented monetized resettlement, which has a significant boost on the demand side: on March 4, the sales restriction of new houses in Jimo District, Qingdao was changed from five years after obtaining certificates to five years after online signing, and second-hand houses can be traded after two years. In addition, in March 2nd, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the trend of real estate bubble financing has been fundamentally reversed, and the real estate market adjustment is not too keen. We believe that the latest tone set by the senior regulators shows that the real estate risk disposal has achieved phased results, and the real estate industry is ready to go. It is expected to continue to move forward and achieve healthy development in the new situation.
Reiterate the view that 2022q1 is the best configuration window for real estate and property management sectors. There will be an obvious situation in the market performance that the company alpha is more important than the industry beta, and some high-quality companies will stand out. Among them, the performance of central state-owned enterprises and high credit private real estate enterprises in the real estate development sector will be more prominent. The current market conditions and their competitive advantages will help them obtain the opportunity to significantly improve their market share in the medium term. A shares recommended by the developer: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jindi group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; Hong Kong stocks: China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Xuhui holding group. A shares recommended by property management: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ; Hong Kong stocks: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life. Green City Management Holdings is recommended by the agent construction standard.
Risk tip: the recovery of market sales is less than expected: the relaxation of policies is less than expected.
