Core view
Compared with last week, the trading volume of new houses decreased and that of second-hand houses increased this week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 47 cities was 36000, down 14.4% month on month and 41.5% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 21000, down 13.1% month on month and 43.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by – 17.6%, – 12.5% and – 5.6% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 41.0%, – 41.8% and – 52.9% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 12000, an increase of 8.3% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.8%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 11000, up 9.3% month on month and down 30.6% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by + 11.5%, + 6.5% and + 17.1% month on month, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 36.1%, – 26.4% and – 32.1% respectively.
The inventory of new houses decreased compared with that of the previous week. The number of new houses decreased by 1.9% over the previous month, which was 1.0% lower than that in the previous month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 541000, down 2.3% month on month and 2.9% year-on-year. The decontamination cycle was 9.7 months, down 0.1 month month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 247000 units, down 4.3% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 8.2 months, down 0.3 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 204000 units, down 0.7% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 10.2 months, up 0.1 month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 90000 units, unchanged month on month, and the deconvolution cycle was 15.5 months, Decreased by 0.1 month month on month.
The overall land market fell compared with the volume and price of last week, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 281, down 4.1% month on month and 47.0% year-on-year; The planned construction area of the land traded was 17.64 million square meters, down 11.8% month on month and 43.4% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 10.1 billion yuan, down 83.6% month on month and 83.1% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 574 yuan / m2, down 81.4% month on month and 70.1% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 1.27%, down 66.3% month on month and 91.9% year-on-year.
Investment suggestions from the government work report, we can see that the goal of “steady growth” is relatively clear, and the supporting role of real estate is still important. However, at present, the financial pressure of real estate enterprises has not been alleviated, and there is no sign of improvement in sales (the sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February announced this week is – 47.9% year-on-year). The willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land and start new construction continues to be depressed. If the current situation continues, The growth pressure of real estate investment in the whole year is great, and the policies at both ends of the industry supply and demand will still be further adjusted. Recently, the real estate supply and demand policy has accelerated the diffusion at the local level, and the depth and breadth of adjustment have been strengthened. This week, Zhengzhou issued a new policy, which supports the reasonable housing needs of college students, migrant workers, the elderly and the improvement, strengthens credit support, and mentions the implementation of monetized resettlement; On the supply side, strengthen the support of M & A loans and development loans, shorten the approval time, speed up the pace of commencement and sales, and dynamically adjust the supply scale of new houses according to the regional decentralization cycle. Jimo District of Qingdao has also adjusted the sales restriction policy, and the transaction of second-hand houses can be relaxed from five years to two years. We believe that the introduction of the new policies in Jimo District of Zhengzhou and Qingdao, as second tier cities, has played a role in asking for directions. The space for policy relaxation is being opened. If more high-energy cities follow up in the future, it will play a positive role in boosting market sentiment. From the perspective of sector investment, the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthening. It is strongly recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector in March and April. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Vanke A, Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
