Market & performance review: since February 2022, the panel (Shenwan) index has fallen by 5.80%. In January 2022, the revenue of BOE and TCL Huaxing large-size LCD panels rebounded slightly month on month
Market review: since February 2022, the panel (Shenwan) index has fallen by 5.80%, losing 6.14pct, 0.13pct and 1.17pct respectively to Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index; . In terms of valuation, as of March 7, the total market value of the A-share panel industry was 461736 billion yuan, and the overall Pb (LF) was 1.38x, which was 7.5% since 2016.
Performance review: according to omdia data, the global large-size LCD panel's monthly revenue in January was US $6.531 billion, down 3.89% month on month and 9.42% year-on-year. Among them, the revenue of BOE and TCL Huaxing's large-size LCD panel rebounded slightly month on month, while the monthly revenue of Youda, qunchuang and LG's large-size LCD panel decreased by 12.9%, 10.0% and 2.4% month on month respectively. Samsung gradually withdrew from the LCD industry. Major LCD manufacturers in China ( Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) , Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Caihong Display Devices Co.Ltd(600707) , Infovision Optoelectronics (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(688055) , Youda, qunchuang optoelectronics and Hanyu Caijing) 3q21 had a revenue of 161132 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 1.13% and a year-on-year increase of 47.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 19.862 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 19.86% and a year-on-year increase of 376.25%; The gross profit margin increased by 12.38% PCT year on year, decreased by 2.75 PCT to 27.16% month on month, and the net profit margin increased by 8.50 PCT year on year, decreased by 3.23 PCT to 12.33% month on month; The turnover days of accounts receivable increased by 3.59 days to 58.85 days month on month, significantly lower than 65.49 days in 3q20; Inventory turnover days increased by 5.07 days year-on-year and 6.19 days month on month to 50.62 days.
Price & cost: in February, the price of small-size LCD TV panel stabilized, and the decline of it panel price expanded month on month; The price of 4q21 LCD TV panel has approached the average cost and cash cost
TV: according to omdia data, the price of 32, 43, 50, 55 and 65 inch LCDTV panel decreased by 0.0%, 1.4%, 2.3%, 2.7% and 2.7% month on month respectively to USD 38, 68, 85, 109 and 179 / piece in February 2022; Omdia predicts that in March 2022, the prices of 32 inch and 43 inch LCDTV panels will rise by 2.6% and 1.5% to USD 39 and 69 / piece respectively, and the prices of 50 inch, 55 inch and 65 inch LCDTV panels will fall by 1.2%, 1.8% and 1.7% to USD 84, 107 and 176 / piece respectively. According to WitsView data, the average price of 4q21 LCD TV panel has approached the level of average cost and cash cost. The prices of 32, 43, 55 and 65 inch LCD TV panels are 3.02%, 8.79%, 16.94% and 16.06% higher than the cash cost respectively.
Notebook: according to omdia data, in February 2022, the prices of 10.1-inch (tablet), 14 inch (notebook) and 23.8-inch (display) lcdit panels decreased by 3.4%, 4.7% and 3.1% month on month to $28.2, 41.0 and 76.9/piece; Omdia predicts that the price of 10.1, 14 and 23.8 inch lcdit panels will decrease by 3.5%, 4.9% and 3.9% month on month to 27.2, 39.0 and 73.9 dollars / piece in March 2022. According to WitsView data, the average price of 4q2114 inch notebook panel is 162.73% higher than the cash cost; The average price of 15.6-inch notebook panel is 160.04% higher than the cash cost.
Supply & Demand: in January 2022, the shipping area of global large-size LCD panels increased by 6.05% year-on-year, the demand for TV panels rebounded slightly, and the demand for display and notebook computer panels remained strong. In terms of supply, we expect the global large-size LCD production area in 2022 to increase by 5.35% compared with that in 2021, of which the production capacity of 1q22, 2q22, 3q22 and 4q22 increased by 1.31%, 1.42%, 2.38% and 2.25% respectively month on month; It is estimated that the global large-size LCD production area in 2023 will increase by 1.49% compared with that in 2022, of which the production capacity of 1q23, 2q23, 3q23 and 4q23 will decrease by 0.27%, 0.39%, 1.57% and 1.41% respectively month on month.
In terms of demand, the trend of large-size, high-end and diversification of terminal demand continues. In January 2022, the global large-size LCD panel shipment area increased by 6.05% year-on-year, including the global LCD TV panel shipment area increased by 3.52%, the global LCD display panel shipment area increased by 20.29% year-on-year, and the global notebook computer panel shipment area increased by 16.81% year-on-year, The global tablet panel shipment area decreased by 12.73% year-on-year.
We believe that with the end of LCD production expansion, the industry will shift from the supply side (capacity change) to the demand side (large-scale, high-end and diversified terminal demand), the industry cycle attribute will be weakened, the growth attribute will appear, and the profit stability of LCD panel enterprises is expected to be strengthened.
Investment suggestion: continue to recommend Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) for LCD industry chain
Chinese mainland China's LCD panel industry has been global leading from scratch, from small to large to large to strong. We are optimistic about the Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) and other Chinese mainland panel leaders' grasp of the era bonus of China's consumer upgrading localization, relying on the industry's voice power brought by the high generation line's scale effect, cost advantage and market share lead. Pricing power has steadily improved profitability.
Risk tips
The risk that the demand for semiconductor display devices is less than expected; Risk of price fluctuation of semiconductor display devices; Supply risks of production equipment and raw materials.
