Key points:
The growth rate of smart phone business and IOT business was weak, and the revenue of IOT business was weak in 2021
In 2021, Q4 smart phone business was still the main revenue of the wafer foundry industry. The growth rate of business revenue was significantly slowed down by the impact of the smart phone market entering the stock replacement stage. The growth rate of business revenue related to TSMC / Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and liandian smart phones in 2021 was less than 10%. Internet of things, automotive electronics and data center and other related businesses performed well, becoming a new focus of revenue growth.
In 2022, the downstream market demand of wafer foundry will change into structural growth, and the growth differentiation of business performance will continue
In 2022, the growth rate of shipments in the downstream market of wafer OEM continued to differentiate; In 2022, DIGITIMES expects the growth rate of global mobile phone shipments to be 4.8%, and the global PC shipments to decline by 4.2%. Iotanalytics expects the growth rate of IOT terminal connection equipment to be 17.89%, and ev volumes expects the global shipment of new energy vehicles to increase by 55.6%. Due to the impact of downstream demand changes, the operation of wafer foundry will show structural growth. IOT, automotive electronics, HPC and other businesses will become the driving force of performance growth, and the mature process business will benefit from the growth of market demand.
Investment advice
The imbalance between supply and demand in the semiconductor industry may continue until the middle of 2022, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price will continue to boost the leading performance in the industry; The medium and long-term growth of emerging demand such as the Internet of things, new energy vehicles and data centers has driven the upward demand of the chip market. The superposition of policy side localization and substitution has continued to promote, and the development of China's semiconductor industry has been good for a long time. It is suggested to focus on the leaders of sub industries such as wafer foundry, power semiconductor and IOT. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the semiconductor industry and maintain the industry overweight rating.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is less than expected; Decline in market demand; Technology research and development is not as expected; The increase of upstream cost is higher than expected; Macro policy changes are less than expected; Systemic risk.
