\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 603 Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) )
Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) is a rare enterprise in China, which started from the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine theory and transformed into the research and development of patented new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine, and achieved success. In the great development of traditional Chinese medicine supported by policies, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) which has paid attention to clinical efficacy and has a mature transformation system of traditional Chinese medicine for many years is expected to shine.
With high-level attention and policy force, the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine has entered a new era. With the CPC Central Committee and the State Council's "opinions on promoting the inheritance and development of traditional Chinese medicine" issued in 2019, and general secretary Xi Jinping talked about the development of Chinese medicine in accordance with the law of development, inheritance of the essence, innovation, speeding up the modernization and industrialization of Chinese medicine, and promoting the development of Chinese medicine to the world; Reform and improve the review and approval mechanism of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the R & D and industrial development of new traditional Chinese medicine. In recent years, substantive documents on supporting the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine have been issued continuously. In 2021, 12 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs were approved, and the number reached a new high in recent years.
The effect of the new TCM transformation model of "theory + clinical + new drug + experiment + evidence-based" is obvious, and Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) has entered the harvest period of TCM innovation Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) "the construction of TCM venation theory and its guidance for the prevention and treatment of microvascular diseases" won the first prize of national scientific and technological progress award in 2019 and the Sixth National Science and technology award won by the company since 2000. In recent years, the company has achieved fruitful results, Originated from Yiling's innovative traditional Chinese medicine R & D model of "based on clinical practice, guided by theoretical hypothesis, relying on therapeutic prescriptions and taking clinical efficacy as the standard". Since 2020, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) traditional Chinese medicine new drugs Lianhua Qingke tablet, Suxia Jieyu Chufan capsule and Yizhi Anshen tablet (all potential varieties) have been approved continuously, leading the number of enterprises. At present, there are still 5 clinical varieties and about 20 preclinical varieties in Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) traditional Chinese Medicine pipeline.
The company's cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs are in the second spring Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) cardio cerebrovascular three ace Tongxinluo capsule, Shensong Yangxin capsule and Qiliqiangxin capsule have all grown to more than 1 billion varieties. The scale of cardio cerebrovascular products is expected to exceed 4 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. After continuous and steady growth, they have accelerated. The core reasons for the high volume of products are the continuous academic investment, recognition outside China, marketing reform and channel construction. Since 2022, the aging of China has intensified, the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is high, the overall scale of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs is about 100 billion, and the growth rate of oral cardiovascular and cerebrovascular Chinese patent medicine industry is accelerating. The company's products are expected to continue to improve the penetration and market share.
Lianhua Qingwen has become a national product, driven by influenza + covid-19. Since its listing, Lianhua Qingwen has proved its prominent role in the treatment of influenza A, avian influenza, influenza B, covid-19 pneumonia and other diseases through a number of high-quality clinical experimental studies, and has been recommended for more than 20 national treatment schemes. In the field of covid-19, Lianhua Qingwen has proved its role in the treatment and prevention of covid-19 through clinical trials. The results have been published in the authoritative international journals Phytomedicine and evidence-based comprehensive and alternative medicine. In 2020, Lianhua Qingwen's revenue exceeded 4 billion, and its market share increased from 2.44% to 9.86% from 2017 to 2020, becoming the largest brand of Chinese patent medicine for colds in the retail market; In 2021, due to the restriction of drug purchase, we expect the revenue to remain at 3.5-4 billion. With the help of influenza plus covid-19, Lianhua Qingwen is expected to resume double-digit growth, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations. The lotus cough clearing product newly approved by the company in 2020 is expected to become a sister product of Lianhua Qingwen, which has entered the national medical insurance, and is expected to become a new large single product in the future.
The momentum of second-line patented products is strong, and the proportion has increased significantly. The company's other patented products in 2020 revenue scale of 300 million, covering diabetes, cancer, neurology, urology and other important areas of treatment, in the Tianjin Li Da capsule, eight Zi Bushen capsule, Xia Liqi capsules and other varieties driven, we expect the company's other patented products 21 years sales scale of 600 million, to achieve double growth.
Chemical crude drugs and great health are expected to become subsequent growth points. The company has established a research and development platform, an international standard production platform for integrated raw materials and preparations and an overseas sales network. At present, the revenue scale is more than 300 million. It has four class 1 new drug pipelines in clinical stage, and 15 products have been approved by FDA anda. In the field of great health, the company has established a complete industrial chain layout of "medicine medicine health care", with a current scale of about 400 million and broad follow-up prospects.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be 10631196914.254 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, 18.9% and 19.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.36, 1.65 and 2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, 21.5% and 21.4%, corresponding to PE32 / 27 / 22x. The company is a leading enterprise in the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine. Under the favorable national policy environment, it is expected to reach a new height, cover for the first time and give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of slowdown in the growth of large varieties, the risk of product price reduction, the risk that the R & D progress is less than expected, and the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials
