\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 05 Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) )
Key investment points
Event: on March 7, the company issued the draft equity incentive plan, which plans to provide equity incentive to no more than 72 company managers, core managers and core technicians. The number of restricted shares granted accounts for about 2.26% of the total share capital of the company, and the grant price is 13.94 yuan / share, which is about 53% of the closing price on March 7.
The setting of performance assessment objectives is relatively reasonable, which shows the company's confidence in the development of the next few years. The company's performance assessment objective of equity incentive is to take the net profit of 2021 as the base, and the growth rate of deducting non net profit in 2022, 2023 and 2024 shall not be less than 30%, 55% and 75% respectively. The performance assessment objective is set reasonably, and the equity incentive fee is excluded, which shows the company's confidence in the development of the next few years. At the same time, the performance growth incentive target from 2023 to 2024 is relatively stable, indicating that the company has fully considered the risk factors brought by possible changes in the market environment in the next few years, and reserved space for the next round of equity incentive.
The implementation of centralized mining in Guangdong alliance area is imminent, which is expected to open channel space through centralized mining and quickly penetrate into the alliance area. The core product of the company was lotion of lotion of losorloside sodium, which was included in the collection catalogue of the Guangdong League area. According to the progress of the previous batch of collection and promotion, it was estimated that the landing time of the collection was near. The company's market share in Guangdong alliance area is not high. It is expected to open channel space through centralized mining and realize the rapid improvement of penetration in the alliance area. The company has abundant research pipelines and sufficient layout in the field of paste preparations and oral solid preparations. With the gradual listing of products, the company improves the product matrix in the field of paste, and continuously introduces new products of solid preparations to contribute to the performance. It is expected that after the incentive, the stability of the company's R & D and technical personnel will be enhanced, which will continue to contribute to the medium and long-term development of the company.
The layout of chain drugstore channels will be started in 2022, which will help reduce the risk of single channel and improve the consumption attributes of products. At present, the company's products are mainly sold through hospital channels. The chain drugstore channel will be laid in 2022. The new channel is conducive to reducing the risk of a single channel. In terms of payment method, based on the overall medical insurance payment in the original hospital, the personal medical insurance account or self payment in the channel of chain drugstores will be increased, the payment structure will be richer and the consumption attribute of products will be improved. It is expected that the net profit margin of the product will be increased due to the promotion of the incremental sales space of the product in the channel, and the net profit rate of the product in the channel will be reduced at the same time.
Considering the impact of equity incentive expenses, the company's profit forecast was lowered. From 2022 to 2025, the amortization expenses of equity incentive are expected to be 278565 million yuan, 25.091 million yuan, 124364 million yuan and 3.0611 million yuan respectively. Considering the amortization impact of the company's equity incentive expenses, the company's profit forecast is lowered. It is expected to achieve revenue of 2.203 billion yuan and 2.896 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2023, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 281 million yuan and 383 million yuan, corresponding to the PE valuation of the current stock price of 21.83 times and 16.02 times respectively. Considering that the company has abundant paste products and oral solid preparation pipelines, and the products are still in a large-scale cycle, equity incentive shows the company's development confidence and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the product volume is less than expected; The decline of centralized mining in Guangdong alliance area is too large; The market competition of paste products has intensified.
