\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Key investment points:
Event: on March 7, 2022, the company issued the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Comments:
The company made a successful start in 2022. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the dynamic sales of the company’s core products performed well and made a successful start. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. Among them, the company’s core product Feitian is still in short supply. As of March 7, 2022, the wholesale price of bulk bottle flying in 2021 is about 2780 yuan, an increase of about 50 yuan / bottle compared with January 1, 2022.
It is expected that the company will enter the capacity release period in 2022. Thanks to the full completion of the Maotai liquor technical transformation project in the 13th five year plan and the orderly promotion of a series of liquor technical transformation projects, the company’s base liquor production capacity will be accelerated in 2021. Among them, the company produced about 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 12.55%; About 28200 tons of series wine base liquor were produced, with a year-on-year increase of about 13.25%. In addition, the company’s Maotai base liquor output increased steadily from 2016 to 2018 after declining in 2015. In 2018, the company’s output of Maotai base liquor was 49700 tons. Combined with the production cycle of Maotai liquor, the company is expected to enter the production capacity release period in 2022.
The company’s product structure and channel reform continued to be optimized. Since December 2021, the company has continuously optimized the product structure on the basis of consolidating Feitian Maotai, and successively released super high-end Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasure) and year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac wine. In addition to releasing new products, the company raised the price of new rare Maotai liquor and aged Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15 on January 1, 2022. Among them, the retail guide price of new rare Maotai liquor was raised from 4499 to 4599 yuan, and the retail guide price of aged Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15 was raised from 4999 to 5999 yuan, further improving the product price range. While optimizing the product structure, the company actively carried out channel reform, vigorously developed direct sales channels, and gradually moved towards flattening. The development of direct selling channels is expected to further promote the ton price of the company’s products, and the company’s fundamentals are expected to continue to improve.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share in 2021 / 2022 will be 41.51 yuan and 48.65 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 41 times and 35 times respectively. The company successfully achieved a good start in 2022. As the leading Baijiu industry, the strategy of Moutai and series wine is two wheel drive clear, and the expansion of direct selling channel is expected to raise the product price. With the release of production capacity, the company has room for further improvement in volume and price. Meanwhile, the newly appointed chairman has strong confidence in the company’s reform, the market has high expectations for the company’s reform, and the company’s performance is expected to make progress while maintaining stability. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk warning. Product upgrading is less than expected, direct sales channel expansion is less than expected, capacity release is less than expected, food safety problems, macroeconomic impact, etc.
