\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 011 Zhejiang Dun'An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) )
Key investment points:
The valve body has a broad market space and high industry concentration. According to the industry online data, the domestic market of valve body showed a strong growth trend in 2021, in which the sales of electronic expansion valve, stop valve and four-way valve increased by 51.7%, 15.1% and 29.1% respectively year-on-year; The industry head aggregation effect is obvious. In 2021, the CR3 of the four categories of electronic expansion valve, stop valve, four-way valve and solenoid valve exceeded 80%. With the upgrading of variable frequency air conditioners and the expansion of the demand for thermal management of new energy vehicles, the company, as a domestic leader, is expected to share the expansion dividend of the valve body market by virtue of its advantages in scale effect and technical competition.
Thermal management + commercial refrigeration, new and old businesses jointly contribute to the growth of the company. 1) Thermal management of new energy vehicles: with the secondary supply of valve body gradually becoming the industry trend in the future, the company is expected to cut into large-scale production with the technical advantage of electronic expansion valve; At the same time, Gree's shareholding injects confidence into the company's operation, and the two sides work together to help the development of new energy vehicle heat management business. 2) Commercial refrigeration: the company focuses on expanding the commercial refrigeration business including commercial central air conditioning, special air conditioning and cold chain system. At present, the commercial equipment product matrix is rich and the cooperative customers are extensive; At the same time, the gross profit margin of the business is high, which is expected to further improve the overall profitability of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the principle of prudence, we do not consider the impact of non-public offering on the company's performance. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 408 / 501 / 550 million from 2021 to 2023, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.44/0.55/0.60, and the current share price will be 25.91/21.10/19.21 times PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: repeated covid-19 epidemic, cyclical fluctuations in the refrigeration industry, less than expected expansion of overseas markets, exchange rate fluctuations, less than expected implementation of financial debt settlement plan, less than expected synergy with Gree, etc.
