\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company announced that during the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales momentum of the company's products was good, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully achieved a "good start". According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year.
The Spring Festival market is booming and has successfully achieved a "good start". On February 9, the Maotai Group meeting reported that during the Spring Festival, the sales momentum of Maotai liquor was good, the price remained stable, and the market showed a strong sales trend; The sales of Maotai Maotai flavor liquor series increased significantly. At present, the price of bulk bottle flying Maotai is stable at 27 Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co.Ltd(002800) yuan, showing the characteristics of tight balance between supply and demand.
Maotai 1935 filled the vacancy of products at the price of 1000 yuan and focused on the "slimming" of series liquor. In 2022, a new and precious Maotai (Maotai liquor) was launched, with an ex factory price of 4399 yuan. It is positioned between high-quality products and years. Maotai liquor forms a product matrix represented by years, treasures, high-quality products and zodiac from top to bottom; Maotai 1935 (Series liquor) has an ex factory price of 798 yuan and a suggested retail price of 1188 yuan, which complements the vacancy of Maotai products with a price of 1000 yuan. In 2022, the company stopped production of 10 series of liquor products such as 500ml Maotai Prince liquor and 500ml Maotai welcome liquor. The market cost is inclined to 11 main products such as Maotai 1935, Han sauce (MAO), golden Prince and precious prince, and the series of liquor product matrix is more focused.
The reform and new deal has been implemented steadily, focusing on the reform of marketing system and market-oriented price strategy. Since taking office at the end of August 2021, chairman Ding Xiongjun has put forward the "five line" development path, responded positively to the problems of poor channels and price control concerned by the market, "we must adhere to the reform of marketization and legalization, and strive to establish a customer management system to enable the sales system with more accurate digitization", Put forward the new policies of "promoting modern management reform, promoting asset management reform, and promoting the reform of marketing system and price system". In the mid autumn of the 21st year, new policies were launched, such as "more than 8000 tons of Maotai were put into double festival", "1499 yuan of Feitian Maotai liquor was stopped in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Maotai International Hotel", "the unpacking policy of other Maotai liquor except pumao will be cancelled immediately"; In the Spring Festival of 22, the unpacking policy of 1 6 boxes of Maotai liquor was cancelled, the unpacking sales of 1 12 Pufei liquor were added, the proportion of goods taken by non-standard Maotai liquor Direct stores was increased, the market price of Pufei liquor was stabilized, and the channel control was continuously strengthened.
The production of the series of wines was expanded by 12000 tons, providing capacity guarantee for long-term development. On January 27, the board of directors passed the proposal on investment in the implementation of phase I construction project of Maotai flavored liquor Xishui tongminba in the 14th five year plan, which added a series of liquor production capacity of about 12000 tons, koji production capacity of about 29400 tons and liquor storage capacity of about 36000 tons, with a construction cycle of 24 months. It is expected that after the completion of the construction, the series wine can form a total capacity of about 67000 tons, providing capacity guarantee for the long-term development of the series wine. In addition, according to the company's "announcement on production and operation in 2021", the output of Maotai base liquor was 56500 tons, an increase of 12.55%, and the production capacity of Maotai base liquor was 56000 tons.
Investment suggestion: the company's Spring Festival market is booming, and it has successfully achieved a "good start". The company's "five line" development path closely focuses on the group's "14th five year plan" and "double consolidation and double building" centers, and focuses on "focusing on main business, adjusting structure, strengthening supporting facilities and constructing ecology". The new deal of market-oriented reform of the company is gradually implemented. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 109.1/124.8/155.8 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 52.1/600/75.9 billion yuan respectively, The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 41 / 36 / 28x respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) there is a risk that the reform of the new deal will be blocked, affecting the supply and demand structure and the rhythm of product supply; 2) Limited risks of industrial policies such as capacity expansion and taxation; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
