\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the announcement of main operating data from January to February 2022. In February before the preliminary accounting, the total operating revenue was about 20.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
A better start than expected to verify the certainty of performance. 1) From January to February 2022, the growth of revenue and performance exceeded the previous expectations of the market. According to the feedback of the Spring Festival, the traditional channels of Feitian Maotai maintain the normal rhythm of payment collection / delivery. The Spring Festival has completed 25-30% of the annual plan, the inventory level is close to zero, and the demand continues to be strong. The increase in direct marketing channels of non-standard products promoted the average price. Maotai 1935, which was listed in January and completed the first batch of supply, contributed part of the increment, and the series of liquor is estimated to have a good performance. 2) It is estimated that the return to parent net interest rate from January to February is 50.5%, which is higher than that in 2021 (47.7%), and the improvement of product structure promotes the profit margin to continue to rise. 3) At present, some dealers have completed the payment in March, and Maotai 1935 continues the second round of delivery. Combined with the situation from January to February, it is estimated that the company’s revenue performance in the first quarter is expected to continue to achieve an increase of nearly 20%, and the certainty of performance has been verified.
Marketing reform is vigorously promoted, and high-quality development is on the way. Since October 21, the company has taken positive reform actions, including successively canceling the unpacking policies of non-standard and Feitian, and increasing the supply of 12 bottles of Maotai. Since the Spring Festival, the wholesale price of whole box / bulk bottle Maotai has been maintained at about 3200 / 2800 yuan, and the price has been effectively controlled. At the end of the year, Maotai, a new treasure, was launched. At the beginning of the year, Maotai began to supply goods in 1935 and supplemented the product matrix at the price of 1000 yuan. According to the delivery volume of 3000 tons, it is estimated that Maotai is expected to contribute more than 4 billion yuan in revenue in 1935. The amount of direct supply channels continues to increase. At present, the annual contract of dealers has not been signed, and the possibility of subsequent marketing reform is high. On February 14, Maotai Group held a 2022 market work meeting, which proposed to comprehensively meet the “key year of reform” in the new era of high-quality and strong industry in Maotai. Chairman Ding proposed the “five in one marketing method”, including resource integration, digital integration, cultural integration, brand aggregation and combination of management and service, so as to realize the transformation and reconstruction of the marketing system. The subsequent company took the initiative to seek change and has a clear trend.
Under the environment of market uncertainty, Maotai’s deterministic value is highlighted again. At present, consumer demand has yet to be restored and regional epidemic has been repeated. The demand resilience and basic support advantages of Moutai have been magnified. Feedback from the Spring Festival has verified the robust performance of the dynamic sales. High-end Baijiu is still a high quality asset with high performance. Since the beginning of the year, the valuation level of the company has dropped significantly because of the market sentiment. The allocation value was further improved. The data from January to February have basically locked in the performance growth in the first quarter, and it is expected to usher in the financial report catalytic market in the future. From the perspective of the whole year, whether it is the acceleration of production capacity release, the structural upgrading brought by product / channel adjustment, the enrichment of product matrix, or the acceleration of market-oriented reform, the company has obvious flexibility in 22 years, and the value of high-quality assets is highlighted again.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit of 520.4/601.7/69.16 billion yuan in 202123, corresponding to EPS of 41.4/47.9/55.1 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 41 / 36 / 31 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: demand for high-end Baijiu is weak, channel structure adjustment is less than expected, new product performance is less than expected.
