\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Matters:
On the evening of March 7, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) issued an announcement to disclose the operating data from January to February for the first time. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Ping An View:
The 22-year performance has made a good start, and the revenue and net profit have increased by 20%. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the company’s product sales momentum was good, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%. During the reporting period, the company’s operating revenue and net profit increased by 20% at the same time, significantly higher than 10.93% and 6.57% in the first quarter of 21, realizing the leap growth of revenue scale and profitability. During the reporting period, the company’s direct sales channels accelerated the pace of shipment, continued to promote the construction of direct sales channels, led to the optimization of product channel structure and contributed to the steady improvement of profitability.
Feitian’s rating remains high, and the price difference safety cushion is guaranteed. In the past 22 years, Maotai’s packaged price remained at a high level. According to the national liquor finance and economics statistics, as of March 7, the packaged price of Feitian bulk bottle was 2770 yuan / bottle and the packaged price was 3130 yuan / bottle. There is a large price difference between Feitian Maotai’s wholesale price, recommended retail price and ex factory price, which proves that Maotai has a tight balance between supply and demand, strong consumer demand and guaranteed price difference safety cushion.
To create a thousand yuan single product, Maotai 1935 was in short supply. Maotai actively laid out the 1000 yuan price belt and launched the new Maotai 1935, with an ex factory price of 798 yuan / bottle and a retail guide price of 1188 yuan / bottle. After the product was released, the company actively carried out marketing promotion, gave preferential support to the cost, promoted the national light show and 1000 tasting meetings, and implanted the concept of “Maotai Maotai flavor · stock production”. The launch of Maotai 1935 improved the product structure of Maotai flavor liquor series, met the liquor purchase needs of different consumers, and fully enjoyed the 1000 yuan price with capacity expansion bonus, providing a strong fulcrum for the performance growth of subsequent series of liquor.
Baijiu has been the first to achieve a good start and maintain “recommended” rating. The company first released the business data announcement from January to February, realizing a double high increase in revenue and net profit, highlighting the company’s excellent brand strength and product strength. Under the epidemic situation, there is still strong demand and a tight balance between supply and demand. With the release of base liquor production capacity and the optimization of product channel structure, the company is expected to achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and price in 22 years. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company, maintain the EPS forecast of 41.39, 48.85 and 56.74 yuan in 21-23 years, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk hint: 1) Baijiu industry downturn risk. Baijiu industry boom and price trend is highly correlated, if Baijiu prices decline, may cause the enterprise revenue growth slowed sharply. 2) The change of management is likely to lead to business fluctuation risk. Baijiu enterprises are influenced by business strategies, such as changing management level, which may lead to a sharp fluctuation in revenues and profits. 3) Policy risk. Baijiu industry demand and tax rate are greatly influenced by policies, such as changes in relevant policies, which may have a greater impact on the company’s revenues and profits.
