\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event overview
The company announced its business data from January to February 2022, achieving a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment:
During the Spring Festival, ultra-high-end products performed prominently and made a “good start” in the first quarter
According to the data of today’s wine price, at present, the lowest rating of Xiangmao is about 3100 yuan and that of Sanmao is about 2780 yuan. It is estimated that most dealers have completed the new round of payment after the festival, but they have not arrived yet. According to the current progress deduction, we expect that the overall revenue in the first quarter is optimistic and is expected to achieve medium to high double-digit growth. Moreover, the increase in the proportion of direct sales in Maotai and the continuous optimization of the structure of high-end products are also expected to drive the overall profit of the company to achieve medium to high double-digit growth. As the representative of the liquor industry’s high-end high-end price, Moutai used mostly in the Spring Festival time for the social gift and high-end drinking scenes. The 22 year Spring Festival epidemic situation eased, and the Baijiu Baijiu‘s multiple consumption scenes were activated, especially in the economically developed regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong (except Shenzhen).
The series extends the super high-end brand power, and the waist price starts to work
After several years of brand fermentation, Maotai continues to extend its brand influence. The Spring Festival sales of high-priced extension products such as boutiques, treasures, the 15th year of the Lunar New Year and the year of the tiger are significantly better than those in previous years; Maotai 1935 Spring Festival topic and market heat has been high; Prince series, welcome series and other products benefited from the contraction of second and third tier sauce and wine during the Spring Festival, and also took over the medium and high-end and secondary high-end sauce and wine market of 200800 yuan. It can be said that in addition to Feitian, Maotai has a number of products in full bloom, and uses its own brand potential to rapidly expand its market share at multiple prices.
The new management took office frequently, and the market-oriented reform of Maotai achieved initial results
Since chairman Ding Xiongjun took office in September 21, Maotai has swept away all kinds of old disadvantages in the past. A series of actions such as canceling the unpacking policy, reorganizing the product price system and expanding production capacity have had a very positive impact on the market, demonstrating chairman Ding’s rapid adaptability and superb decision-making level. So far, Maotai is steadily advancing along the direction of marketization. We believe that Maotai may deepen reform and adjustment in terms of distribution mode, channel management, product structure and organizational development in the future.
Investment advice
We think the Baijiu sector is good in fundamentals. According to the company’s performance forecast data, we will increase the profit forecast. We expect the company to achieve 108602122980138662 billion yuan in the 20212023 years, up from +10.8%/+13.2%/+12.8%, and last year’s forecast of +12.2%/+11.6%/ +10.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.856/61.669/71.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2% / + 16.7% / + 15.5%, and the previous forecast was + 14.7% / + 14.4% / + 13.0%; EPS is 42.08/49.09/56.69 yuan respectively, and the closing price is 1707 yuan on March 8, 2022. The corresponding valuation is 40.57/34.77/30.11 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
① the epidemic situation continues to exceed expectations; ② Economic downturn leads to weakening demand; ③ Food safety issues.
