\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: on March 7, the company released the sales volume in February. This month, the company sold 143500 vehicles, down 39.53% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 36.47%.
Under the adverse effects of Spring Festival holiday + capacity expansion, the sales volume of ai’an in February exceeded expectations. In February, the wholesale sales volume of ea’an was 8526, with a month on month decrease of 46.82% and a year-on-year increase of 162.82%. There are two reasons: 1) the Spring Festival holiday in February belongs to the off-season of sales; 2) According to the company’s official wechat, under the background of car core shortage in 2021, the peak capacity utilization rate of ai’an once exceeded 160%, and the supply was obviously insufficient. According to the company’s official wechat, from January 31 to February 14, 2022, ai’an completed the phase II capacity expansion of ai’an intelligent ecological factory in 15 days, with a current capacity of 200000 vehicles. From the end of 2021 to 2022, ea’an expects a number of new cars to be listed or delivered. 1) according to the company’s official wechat, 2022 aiony will be listed on November 1, 2021, with orders breaking thousands on the first day and 10000 for two consecutive months; 2) On January 1, 2022, the 2022 aionsplus with upgraded appearance and configuration was launched; 3) On January 5, 2022, aionlxplus was officially launched. The new car is equipped with three lidars and sponge silicon negative electrode batteries. The mileage will reach 1008km, and the product power of the new car will be greatly improved; 4) Aiony zhonggai version, aionv seven seat version, aions lithium iron phosphate version and aionvplus6c version are expected to be listed successively in 2022. According to chinacar.com, at present, the monthly order of the security system in Egypt is 1800020000 units, superimposed with the new vehicles listed in 2022. We expect the sales volume of the security system in Egypt to continue to grow.
With abundant orders on hand, GAC motor has set the highest sales record in February since 2019. In February, GAC motor achieved a wholesale sales volume of 23793 vehicles, a month on month decrease of 34.93% and a year-on-year increase of 73.53%, the highest sales volume since February 2019. Among them, 1) MPV models perform well. According to the company’s official wechat, trumpchi M8 has led the sales of its own brand for 29 consecutive months; 2) The sales volume of the main model GAC motor GS4 this month was 10163, with a significant year-on-year increase of 105.77%. According to the company’s official wechat, by the end of 2021, GAC motor had nearly 50000 undelivered orders. Affected by the lack of core, the sales of popular models M8 and Yingbao in January were poor. We expect that with the subsequent gradual easing of the lack of core and the gradual release of orders, and the listing (or delivery) of new models second-generation gs8, M8 hybrid version and Yingbao hybrid version, GAC motor’s sales are expected to continue to reach a new high.
Liangtian refreshed its sales record in February. In February, Guangfeng sold 50100 vehicles in batches, with a month on month decrease of 49.85% and a year-on-year increase of 20.72%, breaking the historical sales record in February. Among them, according to the company’s official wechat, the wholesale sales of leiling and Camry were 10286 and 13670 respectively. The retail sales of new car SANA this month were 4120 and Highlander 7115, with a year-on-year increase of 12.7%; According to the company’s official wechat, the new car fenglanda was listed on the store on February 12, and the cumulative order has reached 11000 units. In February, guangben sold 57102 vehicles in batches, down 27.25% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 9.06%. The terminal sales volume was about 51000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 39.9%. Among them, accord and haoying sold 16588 and 11715 vehicles respectively this month, close to the sales volume in January, and Binzhi sold 10177 vehicles, down 45% month on month. On December 16, 2021, guangben’s heavy-duty new model was listed. According to the company’s official wechat, the order volume reached 15000 within two weeks of listing, which is expected to contribute to the increase of sales volume.
New product cycle + continuous production expansion + price increase in ea’an, and the performance in 2022 can be expected. New products: 1) ea’an: 2022 aiony, aionsplus, aionlxplus, aiony medium modified version, aionv seven seat version, aions lithium iron phosphate version and aionvplus6c version; 2) GAC motor: second generation GAC motor gs8, GS4 brother models, M8 hybrid version and shadow leopard hybrid version; 3) Hiromoto: style, new SUV and Electric Vehicle E: NP1; 4) Guangfeng: Saina, fenglanda, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x; 5) GAC Mitsubishi: pure electric SUV artuko is expected to be intensively listed and is expected to contribute to significant sales increment. In terms of production capacity: 1) according to the company’s announcement, the second plant of ai’an plans to produce 200000 vehicles, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2022, and the production capacity of ai’an will reach 400000 vehicles in 2023; 2) Guangfeng’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 new energy vehicles (line 4), Guangqi Toyota engine tnga series engine construction project and key supporting parts construction project were also started on schedule. Guangben’s adjusted capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles was approved. At the end of 2021, the price of the new version of ailux was more than 4000 yuan, up slightly from that of the new version of ailus at the end of 2021; 2) In order to cope with the impact of the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline of new energy subsidies, the prices of many models of ai’an have increased by 4 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan since March 4. New product cycle + continuous expansion of production + price increase of ea’an, and the company’s performance in 2022 can be expected.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, gac-e’an’s sales volume is expected to continue to grow, gac-motor is expected to continue to reduce losses, and the listing of heavy-duty models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 6.84 billion yuan, 9.81 billion yuan and 13.6 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE is 18.1, 12.7 and 9.2 times respectively, maintaining the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price is 17.90 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips in the automotive industry is increasing; Risk that the independent sales volume is lower than expected; The risk of the epidemic getting out of control.
