\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 033 Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) )
Under the repeated epidemic, the company's performance loss in 2021 is within the forecast range. In the whole year of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 358 million yuan / - 16.87% and performance loss of 378032 million yuan / - 153.63%. Within the range of performance forecast (loss of 28-38 million yuan), EPS was -0.07 yuan, and the profit performance was not as good as that in 2020, mainly due to the repeated epidemic in the second half of last year and the opening of diqingxiangbala new project. Q4 revenue was 68 million yuan / - 56.69%, and the performance loss was 487626 million yuan, which was under significant pressure.
Repeated epidemics have put pressure on passenger flow, further dragging down the opening of Diqing new project. Under the epidemic, Yunnan Province suspended inter provincial travel for a total of 92 days in 2021, and basically closed in the summer peak season, which directly led to the decline of passenger flow and pressure on the main business. Among them, the annual cableway passenger flow is 2161400 person times / - 22.40%, and the cableway revenue is 166386100 yuan / - 20.93%, only 45-50% of that in 2019; In terms of hotels, the revenue of Hefu Hotel decreased by 15% and the performance increased and decreased. Although the newly opened Diqing project brought revenue growth, the performance increased and decreased significantly, which further dragged down; Impression Lijiang tourists fell by 27%, revenue by 32% and net profit by 74%, only 6% in 2019. Under the influence of repeated epidemics and the opening of Diqing new project, the gross profit margin was -9.40pct and the period cost was + 11.43pct.
The epidemic still needs to be tracked in the short term, but there are still expectations for marginal relaxation in the future, taking into account resource integration and equity issues. Since this year, the epidemic has been repeated, and it is expected that it will still have an adverse impact on the company's operation in the short term. However, on the one hand, the introduction of relevant rescue policies and other policies for the service industry is favorable. On the other hand, with the strengthening of precise prevention and control, the future epidemic prevention and control still does not rule out the gradual marginal relaxation, and the midline recovery can still be expected. At the same time, the company is the leading scenic spot in Northwest Yunnan and the only A-share listed company in Lijiang. It has prominent resource advantages. The latest announcement plans to build Ganhaizi Tourist Distribution Center in Yulong Snow Mountain scenic spot to further optimize the traffic line and strengthen secondary consumption. At present, Lugu Lake Mosuo town is still advancing, the layout of the high-quality small ring road of great Shangri La is basically completed, and the regional integration continues to promote, which is still expected to bring the highlights of the middle line. In addition, the previously announced state-owned assets holding position is expected to be clarified again, but at present, Xueshan company and Huapont Life Sciences Co.Ltd(002004) are still acting in concert, and the equity issue needs to be tracked and finally settled in the future.
Risk tip: epidemic situation and other systemic risks. The solution of equity problems is lower than expected, and the extension is lower than expected.
"Integration, focus on the epidemic situation, increase investment, maintain the middle line" temporarily. Considering the repeated impact of the recent epidemic, we expect eps0.5% in 22-24 years 15 / 0.35/0.42 yuan (previously estimated at 0.35/0.47 yuan in 22-23 years), mainly due to the impact of the reduction of passenger flow assumption under the epidemic and the drag of the cultivation period of new projects such as Diqing, corresponding to pe41 / 18 / 15 times. The epidemic still needs to be tracked in the short term, but there are still expectations for follow-up recovery. As the leader of tourism in Northwest Yunnan, the company has good resource endowment and prominent regional card position advantages. The middle line is still expected to actively promote the integration of regional tourism resources, wait for the implementation of the controlling stake game, and temporarily maintain the "overweight" rating.
