\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
On March 7, the company released its business data announcement. During the Spring Festival, the company’s product sales momentum was good, and the market showed a strong sales trend. From January to February, the company achieved a total revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20%; The net profit attributable to the mother was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20%, and the Spring Festival successfully achieved a “good start”.
Business analysis
The reform dividend was released more than expected, and the leading toughness was highlighted. From January to February, the company achieved about 20% growth in both revenue and profit. We expect that on the basis of Feitian’s steady growth, it is mainly due to the year-on-year volume superposition of non-standard Maotai liquor and the contribution increment of new products. Since the beginning of the year, despite the disturbance of the epidemic and macroeconomic pressure, the wholesale price of bulk bottles has remained stable and the overall demand is still good. The company’s better than expected opening of the Spring Festival season proves the strong resilience of the leader in the face of external disturbances. We are also optimistic about the further release of the company’s reform potential at the levels of channels, marketing and products.
Multi dimensional continuous optimization, profit side may be flexible. According to the recent channel feedback, Pfizer has started payment and delivery in March, and the inventory is at a low level under the control of the channel; The volume of non-standard goods taken through direct sales has increased, and combined with the previous price increase, it is expected to contribute to the ton price end; Maotai 1935 has a slight volume in the series, and the recent rating has dropped slightly. It is expected that the overall product structure of the company will be more flexible, and the overall product price of the company is expected to be gradually optimized, and the overall product price of the company is expected to be more low.
The rise of both volume and price enables the leader to go steady and far, and it is suggested to grasp the logic of long-term profit return in the medium and long term. At present, the logical certainty of the company’s simultaneous rise in volume and price is very high. The increase in the output of Maotai base liquor in 18 years provides support for the accelerated volume in 22 years; The upgrading of product structure and the optimization of channel structure have gradually matured the layout of price band. The current huge external profits, on the one hand, confirm the company’s strong bargaining power, on the other hand, show that there is sufficient space for long-term performance. It is suggested to pay attention to the logic of medium and long-term return of external profits.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the growth rate of the company’s revenue in 21-23 years will be 11.2% / 15.3% / 16.0% respectively, corresponding to a revenue of 109 / 125.7/145.8 billion yuan; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.3% / 17.4% / 18.0% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 52 / 61 / 72 billion yuan; EPS is 41.39/48.58/57.32 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 41 / 35 / 30x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, channel reform is less than predicted, and food safety problems.
