\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Core conclusion
From January to February, it made a good start, and the revenue performance increased by about 20%. On the evening of March 7, the company announced that during the Spring Festival in 2022, the market demand was strong and the dynamic sales were bright, which successfully achieved a “good start”. According to accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. It was driven by multiple factors such as clearing the channel inventory before the year, the company continued to increase the direct marketing investment and actively promote the upgrading of product structure. Based on this calculation, the company’s revenue from January to February 2021 is about 16.8 billion yuan. Considering the base effect brought by the price increase of non-standard liquor, series liquor and total distribution in March last year, the company’s revenue is expected to grow by nearly 20% in 2022q1.
The inventory is low and the price is strong, and the supply and marketing of Maotai continue to flourish around the Spring Festival. Since this year, the price trend of scattered grass and box grass has been stable. The price drop before and after the Spring Festival is not significant, and fluctuates in a small range with the real demand of the market. According to the research feedback from multiple channels, the demand of Maotai is the strongest during the Spring Festival. After the festival, most channels have completed a new round of payment, the supply of channels is in short supply, and there is zero inventory in some markets.
In the first quarter, non-standard investment was increased, and the vigorous dynamic sales in 1935 added growth momentum. According to the feedback of channel research, the prices in the 15 years after the festival were flat month on month, and the prices of the year of the tiger and high-quality products fell slightly month on month. Recently, the supply has increased strongly and the demand has eased. The new product 1935 was launched on the basis of Zunyi 1935, with sufficient market cultivation and high consumer popularity. We expect to contribute about 5 billion yuan of tax revenue in the whole year, adding impetus to the growth of the company’s performance.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, the reform dividend will be superimposed in large quantities, and the annual performance is expected to increase rapidly, which will be gradually verified in the first quarter. The low inventory after the festival strengthened the confidence of replenishment in March, and the high outlook of the market continued. The probability of 2022q1 performance exceeded the original expectation of the market. Super brand is the best endorsement for high performance certainty. Recently, affected by the aggravation of the epidemic counterattack in many places, the market’s concern about the lack of consumption scenes triggered the stock price adjustment and highlighted the valuation cost performance. We expect the company’s EPS to be 42.6/49.5/57.0 yuan from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic continues to intensify and the consumption tax reform is implemented
