\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 100 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) )
The company released the 2021 performance express, and the annual performance slightly exceeded expectations. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 9.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.693 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.52%, of which Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.126 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 708 million yuan.
The excavator sales volume is high before and low after disturbing Q4 performance, and the non-standard oil cylinder and pump valve products are in large quantities to strengthen the income elasticity. In 2021, China’s main engine manufacturers sold 342800 excavators, of which 274400 were sold in China, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and 68400 were exported, with a year-on-year growth of 97.0%. Under the background of obvious cooling of the industry in the second half of the year, the company’s Q4 performance fluctuated to some extent, but on the whole, the annual performance growth momentum was sufficient, and the annual revenue of excavator cylinder products increased by 12% year-on-year, Compared with the market share of more than half of the excavator cylinder products, the hydraulic pump and valve products still have a large penetration space. In addition, with the consolidation of the excavator hydraulic parts pattern, the further improvement of the non-standard product line has strengthened the company’s income elasticity. Therefore, in the long run, the large amount of the company’s non-standard products plus pump and valve products will support the company’s performance. In 2021, the company’s revenue of hydraulic pump and valve products increased by 38% year-on-year, and that of non-standard oil cylinder products increased by 24% year-on-year.
Under the background of rising prices of raw materials, the net profit margin of sales has been continuously optimized, demonstrating the strong operation and management ability of the company. According to the net profit of the scale disclosed in the company’s express, the company’s net profit margin on sales in 2021 was 28.94%, which was still slightly higher than 28.79% in 2020. Considering the disturbance of multiple external factors such as the rise of raw material costs in 2021, the excellent level of net profit margin of the company is really eye-catching. We believe that the profitability of the company has been further improved under heavy pressure, mainly due to two aspects: 1) under the continuous growth of the company’s overall output, the scale effect has been further revealed, and the cost side advantage has continued to play its role; 2) The quality of non-standard cylinder orders was further improved.
Profit forecast and valuation. We believe that the market penetration of the company’s pump and valve products still has the power to improve when the demand for excavator cylinders remains stable. In addition, the business of non-standard products will continue to improve the performance elasticity of the company. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of 9.309 billion yuan, 11.332 billion yuan and 13.134 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.693 billion yuan, 3.316 billion yuan and 3.856 billion yuan respectively, The current share price corresponding to PE is 28.4, 23.1 and 19.8 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of construction machinery industry is declining; The competition pattern of hydraulic parts industry has intensified.
