\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the production and sales express in February 2022: the company produced and sold 151919 and 143464 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.16% and 36.47%. The comments are as follows:
Liangtian sustained high-quality growth in February: 1) GAC Toyota achieved production and sales of 56269 and 50100 vehicles respectively in February, with a year-on-year increase of 38.36% and 20.72%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to February was 14.24%. GAC Toyota's high quality is reflected in the increase in the proportion of hybrid and flagship models. Guangfeng retail 16024 hybrid models in February, accounting for 30.2% of its retail sales. From January to February 2022, hybrid vehicles accounted for 28.3%, while from January to February 2021, hybrid vehicles accounted for only 14.1%. The sales proportion of the three flagship models increased significantly. The total sales volume of hanlanda, Saina and Camry in February 2022 was 25463, accounting for more than 50%. From January to February 2022, the cumulative proportion was 48.0%, while the sales volume of the three major models from January to February 2021 accounted for 31%. The increase of the proportion of hybrid and flagship models will be beneficial to improve the brand image and operation quality of GAC Toyota. 2) GAC Honda produced and sold 60633 and 57102 vehicles respectively in February, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39.52% and 39.06% respectively. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales from January to February 2022 was also 14.2%. The high-quality development of GAC Honda is reflected in the rapid recovery of production and sales. When the chip is still affected, the production and sales of GAC Honda in February hit a new high in February over the years. According to our research on the generation of guangben models and the launch plan of Dongfeng Honda new models, we infer that guangben will also enter the launch period of new products this year, such as Binzhi, haoying and new SUV. (see Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ) depth report series 5: CO directional resonance of joint venture sector 20211024 for details)
High quality development of ea'an and GAC motor: 1) in February, the production and sales of ea'an were 8534 and 8526 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 186.28% and 163.23% respectively. Considering the impact of the second phase capacity expansion of gac-e'an plant from January 31 to February 14 on the existing capacity, the sales performance is good. We expect that with the release of new production capacity, the sales volume of ea'an is expected to continue to rise. 2) In February, GAC motor produced and sold 23013 and 23793 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 59.85% and 73.53% respectively. GAC motor's sales performance in February was significantly better than that of the industry (according to the passenger Federation, the wholesale of passenger cars in February is expected to increase by 31% year-on-year). The full recovery of GAC motor is imminent, and the large-scale delivery of new gs8, shadow leopard and M8 are still restricted by chips. According to the official account number, the shadow leopard has a cumulative order of over 70 thousand at the end of December 2021. According to the cumulative delivery data, the shadow leopard is still in sufficient order. In the second half of 2022, GAC motor's new hybrid system gmc2 0. With the mass production of new products such as emkoo, the overall recovery of trumpchi is on the way.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2 month is better than the sales performance of the industry, which is the result of joint efforts of its joint venture and independent sectors. We believe that the joint venture sector of the company will enter the stage of growth acceleration, and the independent sector will also enter the stage of substantial and comprehensive recovery. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term development prospects of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 7.27 billion yuan, 12.89 billion yuan and 15.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.70, 1.25 and 1.52 yuan. According to the closing prices of a and h on March 7, 2022, the PE of GAC A shares are 17, 10 and 8 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 8, 4 and 4 times respectively, maintaining the "strongly recommended" rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is sluggish, the company's new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
