\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 187 Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) )
1. Rail transit power grid has obvious first mover advantages in high-voltage IGBT, and successfully cut into medium and low-voltage IGBT such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power: relying on its leading position in high-voltage IGBT in China, the company successfully cut into medium and low-voltage IGBT modules in the field of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic / wind power in 2019, and took the lead in the supply of IGBT modules above class a vehicles in China with the advantages of high standard quality control system and IDM integration. With the company’s phase II vehicle gauge IGBT production line put into operation at the end of 2021, it is expected that the company’s vehicle gauge IGBT module shipments will exceed 1.1 million in 2022, and IGBT modules for photovoltaic and wind power will also be shipped in batches. It is expected that the company’s power semiconductor business will increase significantly by 67% to 2.7 billion in 2022.
2. From the core parts of power semiconductor to system level products such as automobile electric drive, photovoltaic inverter and wind power converter: the company has successfully entered the broader new energy business field such as automobile electric drive, photovoltaic inverter and wind power converter. In 2021, the shipment of automobile electric drive was about 80000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of more than 300%, becoming the top ten electric drive suppliers in China. The photovoltaic inverter product matrix has been expanded from centralized to series and distributed products, and has entered the procurement directory of several central enterprises. It has won the bid for the order of Guohua Energy 472mw full capacity photovoltaic inverter equipment. We believe that the revenue of the company’s new energy system level products will exceed 3 billion yuan in 2022.
It is expected that the business of Guocheng Rail Transit Equipment Co., Ltd. will recover by 70% in 20212020, and the bidding volume of Guocheng Rail Transit Equipment Co., Ltd. is expected to rebound significantly in 20212022, driven by the epidemic situation. In 2022, with the gradual easing of the epidemic, the state issued the “steady growth” policy, which is expected to further stimulate the release of the demand for replacement of large railway locomotives. We expect the rail transit business to rebound to the bottom in 2022 and gradually return to the level before the epidemic.
The “buy” rating is recommended for the first time, and the target price is 85 yuan: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.108 billion, 2.833 billion and 3.478 billion respectively, and the corresponding P / E will be 36x, 26x and 21x respectively.
