\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 619 Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) )
Company overview: establish the industrial chain layout of oil exploration and development based on oil drilling engineering services. The company is a comprehensive oil and gas listed company focusing on the field of oil and natural gas. The company started with drilling equipment in the early years, and then gradually extended to drilling engineering services, and formed two main business layouts of engineering services + equipment manufacturing. In 2018, the company successfully obtained the oil and gas exploration right of Wensu block in Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, becoming the first private enterprise to obtain the exploration right of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) block and declare oil reserves to the state, and further extended its business scope to exploration and development business, growing into an enterprise integrating exploration and development + engineering services + equipment manufacturing.
Drilling engineering services: high oil prices support the recovery of the prosperity of the oil service industry, and the company's orders have increased in quantity and quality. Affected by the long-term shortage of surplus capacity in major crude oil supply countries and the short-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil price in 2022 will continue to rise and remain high compared with that in 2021. Under high oil prices, oil companies increase upstream capital expenditure (especially national oil companies), which drives the prosperity of the oil service industry and the increase of orders. In 2021, the amount of overseas drilling project orders signed by the company was 2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 28.1% year-on-year. The total amount of all contracts signed was 2.38 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. The company's drilling engineering service orders have increased significantly and have been out of the impact of the epidemic. At the same time, the company actively expanded its customers. In 2021, the company successively signed project contracts with Saudi Aramco with a total amount of 170 million US dollars, successfully entered the Saudi drilling engineering market with the highest threshold recognized by the world oil service industry, and opened up the high-end market.
Oil exploitation and sales: with the rapid expansion of business, crude oil production and sales will grow at a high speed. Relying on its advantages of "integration of engineering services and equipment manufacturing", the company has actively expanded its oil exploration and development business. China has won Wensu oil and gas block in Xinjiang through bidding, and foreign mergers and acquisitions have taken shares in Kazakstan tenge oil field and shore oil and gas field. In Wensu block, wen7 block has been put into operation, with a production capacity of 350000 tons in 2022. Hong11 block and Zhenghong 11 block are gradually developed, and the output is expected to exceed that of Wensu block. At the same time, the explored area of Wensu block is only 377 square kilometers, and another 709 square kilometers have not been explored, so there is a large space for production expansion in the future. In the waterfront block, it is expected to be put into operation in 2024, with an annual output of 300000 tons / year. Tenge block is located in the oil and gas enrichment zone of the second largest petroliferous basin in the Republic of Kazakhstan, close to the giant Wujin oilfield, with superior geological conditions; At present, it has been put into operation stably, with an output of 100000 tons in 2019. It is estimated that the oil and gas production of the company will be 350000 tons, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons and 1 million tons in 2022, 2023 and 2025 respectively, and the average annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 55.7%.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.24/37.1/5.47 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 0.7/4.6/980 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 0.18/1.16/2.46 yuan. Taking comparable companies Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) with 14 times of PE in 2022 (wind unanimously expected) as a reference, considering that the company's main business oil service will be repaired with the rise of oil price, and that the gradual production and production of oil fields such as Xinjiang wen7 block will bring considerable performance growth, the growth can be expected in the future, it will be covered for the first time, and it will be rated as "recommended".
Risk warning: the risk of sharp decline in crude oil price; The risk of slow loading speed in wen7 block and slow exploration and development progress in other blocks; Risk of rising cost in wen7 block; The risk that the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the operation of overseas oil fields; Financial risk of low quick ratio and cash ratio.
