\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) release the main business data from January to February 2022.
During the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales momentum of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (hereinafter referred to as the company) products was good, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Brief comment
The reform achieved outstanding results and made a good start, greatly exceeding expectations.
The company released the operating data during the Spring Festival peak season from January to February 2022. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth of about 20% in revenue and profit, the good start performance significantly exceeded the previous market expectations. Combined with the dynamic sales of channels in various regions tracked since the Spring Festival and a series of new developments in products and channels since the end of 2021, we believe that the company’s better start performance in 2022 is mainly due to the following factors:
① from the perspective of channel structure, since 2019, the company has continuously promoted the optimization of channel structure and expanded the proportion of direct sales channels. It is expected that during the Spring Festival of 22 years, the amount of direct sales channels such as Maotai self operated stores, contracted e-commerce platforms and supermarkets will increase, contributing to a good start and high growth of performance.
② from the perspective of product structure, in terms of Maotai liquor, with the launch of new products such as the year of the tiger Zodiac Maotai and rare Maotai liquor at the end of 21, the amount of non-standard Maotai liquor is expected to increase during the Spring Festival. The ex factory price of Chinese Zodiac liquor in the year of the tiger is 1999 yuan, and the ex factory price of rare Maotai liquor is expected to be more than 4000 yuan. The ex factory price of non-standard Maotai liquor products is higher than that of ordinary flying sky. Increasing the amount of non-standard Maotai liquor can release the elasticity of Maotai liquor revenue and profit growth. In addition, the price of the zodiac Maotai liquor direct sales channel is higher than that of the traditional distribution channel, and the increase in the amount of direct sales channels will further enlarge the growth elasticity.
In terms of series liquor, with the continuous improvement of the channel construction of series liquor with the theme of “Maotai Maotai flavor, shared by thousands of families”, Maotai series liquor complies with the Maotai flavor heat and opens the stage of simultaneous increase in volume and price. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the company launched a series of large single liquor Maotai 1935 with a price of 1000 yuan. With strong brand endorsement, Maotai 1935 has been highly recognized by the market since its listing. Under the tight demand, the wholesale price remains at a high level of about 1600 yuan. From January to February, the volume of Maotai 1935 is expected to contribute to the growth of the revenue of the series of liquor, and optimize the product structure of the series of liquor.
③ in terms of the price per ton of liquor, the ex factory price of Maotai liquor in the direct selling channel is higher than that in the traditional distribution channel, and the large volume of the direct selling channel will drive the increase of the average ton price of Maotai liquor. In addition, the increase in the proportion of non-standard Maotai liquor also contributed to the increase in the average ton price. Meanwhile, according to the first financial reporter, the 15 year retail guide price of Maotai has been raised from 4999 yuan to 5999 yuan. It is expected that the ex factory price will also be raised. The price increase of non-standard Maotai will directly boost the ton price. In terms of series liquor, with the volume of Maotai from 1935, the ton price of series liquor is expected to increase.
The company’s goal planning is clear, the proportion of direct sales of Maotai liquor is increased, and the superimposed capacity is gradually put into operation. The probability of chain speed-up in 2022 is high.
After the new management is in place, focusing on the strategic goal of “double consolidation and double building” of the group and the main liquor industry, the company will carry out adjustment and reform of corporate governance structure, organizational structure, marketing system, product grade and price band structure, strive to standardize the original channels, explore and develop new retail channels, optimize the brand price system, and strive to return Maotai liquor to the commodity attribute. We believe that the proportion of direct sales channels and new retail channels will continue to increase in 2022. Under the condition of stable volume of Maotai liquor in recent two years, it is conditional to maintain an increase of 8-10% in 2022. Even if the price system remains unchanged, the growth rate will also increase month on month.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions.
We think that the Baijiu industry is still in a healthy development period, and the industry will concentrate on quality brands in the future. It is expected that the proportion of direct sales channels and new retail channels of the company will continue to increase in 2022. Under the condition of stable volume of Maotai liquor in recent two years, it is conditional to maintain an increase of 8-10% in 2022. Even if the price system remains unchanged, the growth rate will also increase month on month. At present, the valuation of Maotai corresponds to 35x in 22 years. Compared with international consumer goods companies, the valuation has been at a reasonable or even low level. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 108773 billion yuan, 126242 billion yuan and 146019 billion yuan in 202123, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.0%, 16.1% and 15.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 51.829 billion yuan, 60.499 billion yuan and 70.261 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.0%, 16.7% and 16.1%; The corresponding EPS is 41.26 yuan, 48.16 yuan and 55.93 yuan respectively; The corresponding dynamic PE from 2021 to 2023 (closing price on March 7, 2022) are 41, 35 and 31x respectively.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemics, food safety risks, etc.
