\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announce the announcement of main business data from January to February of 22 years. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the product sales momentum is good, the market shows a strong sales trend, and the "good start" is realized smoothly. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Key points supporting rating
From January to February 2022, the company's revenue and net profit increased by 20% year-on-year, significantly faster than that in 2021, continuing the improvement trend since 4q21, and the performance exceeded market expectations. (1) The handover of the new and old chairman was completed in the third quarter of 21, and the signal of improvement was continuously transmitted to the market in the fourth quarter and January February of 22. 4q21's revenue increased by 12.4% and net profit increased by 14.5%, slightly faster than that of 1-3q21, and the positive trend continued from January to February 2022. (2) From January to February of 22, the first batch price of pumao was 27 Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co.Ltd(002800) yuan, with little change compared with 4q21. We judge that the market input of Maotai liquor has increased significantly. (3) Due to the good achievement of the 21-year target of series wine, 4q21 company slowed down the delivery speed, increasing by only 2.4%, leaving surplus grain for 2022. In addition, the new Maotai 1935 was put on the market, with strong demand and increment. Therefore, the wine series is expected to achieve rapid growth from January to February. (4) According to the information on Maotai's official website, on February 14, Maotai Group held a 2022 marketing work meeting, and the chairman put forward the "five in one marketing method", which shows that the new team has had systematic thinking and planning on Maotai's marketing work and helped speed up the performance.
The new team has a new atmosphere, and the production capacity of base liquor is abundant. It is worth looking forward to 2022 and is expected to speed up significantly. (1) In the third quarter, the new and old chairman completed the shift handover. We believe that the new management team can concentrate more on production and operation. The new chairman proposed at the shareholders' meeting that Maotai would follow the market law and reflect the reasonable value. Therefore, we believe that the ex factory price of pumao may be increased in the future. (2) According to the calculation of the company's base liquor output, the base liquor in 2022 is very abundant, which is significantly better than that in the past two years, and there is enough to put. The output of base liquor in 2017 and 2018 reached 42800 and 49700 tons, with a significant increase for two consecutive years. According to the five-year storage cycle of base liquor, there will be plenty of base liquor that can be put on the market in 2022. At the 2022 China brand power ceremony held on February 22, the chairman said that he would meet people's demand for Maotai to the greatest extent, showing that the company has confidence in its own production capacity.
Valuation
It is estimated that the EPS of 21-23 years will be 41.39, 49.56 and 58.41 yuan, with a year-on-year rate of 11.3%, 19.7% and 17.9%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Social inventory exceeded expectations. The corporate governance structure needs to be improved
