\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: Maotai disclosed the announcement of main business data from January to February. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Key investment points
From January to February, the revenue and profit exceeded the market expectation, and the direct operation is expected to continue to accelerate. From January to February, the company’s revenue / net profit increased by about 20% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, which fully shows that mobile sales are good during the Spring Festival. The increase mainly comes from two aspects: 1) dealers’ non-standard Maotai will uniformly take goods from direct stores this year, and the price is higher than the ex factory price. We expect that the proportion of direct sales in Q1 will continue to increase, contributing to the main increase; 2) Maotai 1935 new products and series have some price increases.
In 2022, the volume of price increase is the same and the development can be accelerated. The acceleration path of Maotai in 2022 is clear. In terms of splitting, the available base liquor will exceed 40000 tons next year, with a year-on-year increase of 10% +, and the sales volume is expected to break through the bottleneck. In addition, the price increase expectation is still maintained. At the same time, through channel marketing reform (continue to increase the proportion of direct sales) and product reform (increase non-standard and new products, etc.), the revenue is accelerated, the certainty is further enhanced, and the performance is expected to exceed the market expectation.
The reform of marketing system has been steadily promoted, and the medium and long-term growth is still strong. In the medium and long term, high brand barriers remain unchanged, and Maotai’s market-oriented marketing reform is on the way. President Ding, the new chairman, proposed that the core task is to take the initiative to seek change, vigorously promote the marketing reform, and promote the market work ability and level to achieve a qualitative leap. From a series of actions after taking office, we can see the management’s work style of daring to reform and landing. At present, the price difference of Maotai channel is still large, and the firm market-oriented marketing reform is expected to further promote the gradual recovery of external profits, and the path of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future will be clearer.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: Moutai’s performance in Baijiu is still strong, series wine gradually expands, product structure is further cleared up, and consideration is given to factors such as volume and price and new leadership. Moutai’s performance in the next two years still has the possibility of anticipation in the supermarket. We estimate that the total revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 109, 126 and 144.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, 16% and 15% (before adjustment, 110.2, 125.1 and 143.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13%, 14% and 15%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 52.0 billion, 60.9 billion and 70.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, 17% and 15% (before adjustment, RMB 52.0 billion, 59.8 billion and 69.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, 15% and 16%), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the marginal impact of the epidemic has increased, the consumption recovery is less than expected, and the overseas situation is further volatile
