\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2 months, the output of passenger cars was 151901, with a month on month ratio of + 46.50% / – 30.51% respectively; The sales volume was 143434, with a month on month ratio of 36.58% / – 39.52% respectively. Among them, 1) the output of GAC Honda in February was 60633 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 39.52% / – 19.51% respectively; The sales volume was 57102, with a month on month ratio of + 39.06% / – 27.25% respectively. 2) GAC Toyota’s output in February was 56269 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 38.36% / – 38.12% respectively; The sales volume was 50100 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 20.72% / – 49.85% respectively. 3) GAC motor’s output in February was 23013 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 59.85% / – 28.56% respectively; The sales volume was 23793 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 73.53% / – 34.93% respectively. 4) The output of GAC in the same month was + 86.41% and that of EA in the same month was + 28.55%; The sales volume was 8526, with a month on month ratio of + 163.23% / – 46.82% respectively.
GAC’s overall production batch performed well year-on-year, and GAC’s ea’an continued to grow high year-on-year: 1) from the perspective of brands, GAC motor’s production batch performed better than the group as a whole year-on-year. The sales of key models GAC motor gs10163 in April were + 105.77% / – 24.85% month on month. GAC ea’an: the production batch continued to grow rapidly year-on-year. On February 14, the phase II capacity expansion of the ea’an plant was completed. We expect that the delivery progress will be further accelerated after the expansion is completed. Guangfeng: both wholesale and retail sales in February hit a new high in February. The key car models were TOYOTA, which sold 4120 vehicles in February, 7115 times in February, and 7115 in February, compared with +12.7%/-46.05% (the growth rate was from the company’s official account). Camry sold 14228 vehicles in February, which were +64.0%/-49.23% respectively. THGA’s first compact SUV fenglanda has accumulated 11000 orders since its listing on February 12; The sales volume of hybrid models was 16024, a year-on-year increase of + 128.6%. Guangben: the sales volume of key models accord in February was 16588, with a month on month ratio of + 79.47% / – 5.76% respectively; Haoying sold 11715 vehicles in February, with a month on month ratio of + 14.11% / + 1.17% respectively; Binzhi sold 10177 vehicles in February, with a month on month ratio of – 4.26% / – 44.68% respectively. 2) In terms of vehicle types, MPV production batch increased year-on-year driven by independent / joint venture new products. The production batch of cars in February was 65057 / 62347 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.33% / + 40.84% and a month on month increase of – 37.65% / – 44.17%; The monthly production batch of MPV2 was 12943 / 15032 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 102.52% / + 157.53% and a month on month increase of – 24.47% / – 17.47% respectively; The monthly production batch of suv2 was 72901 / 66055 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.53% / + 20.28% and a month on month increase of – 23.90% / – 38.43%.
Overall replenishment of the group: according to our self built inventory system, in February Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) overall replenishment of inventory, the enterprise’s inventory in the current month was + 8467 (compared with January). The inventory of guangben / Guangfeng / GAC motor / ai’an enterprises in the current month was + 3531 / + 6169 / – 780 / + 8 respectively (compared with January).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the launch of GAC motor + GAC ea’an new model, a new round of product cycle will continue to be launched in large quantities, and the cycle of Japanese models will be strong, which is expected to continue to improve. We maintain our expectation of net profit attributable to the parent company from Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2021 to 2023, which is 6.5/9/11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.9% / + 38.3% / + 23.0% respectively; The corresponding EPS from 2021 to 2023 is 0.62/0.86/1.06 yuan and PE is 19 / 14 / 11 times. For a long time, we still insist on optimistic about GAC’s independent + Japanese new car cycle, continue to increase the volume, and maintain the Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; Demand for passenger cars is lower than expected.
