\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 131 Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) )
Key investment points:
Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) make full use of customer channels to enable product research and development, expand product categories, and extend front-end business to other biological reagents; The back-end intermediates and APIs have fully proved the industrialization ability. The logic of expanding innovative drugs to the downstream is smooth. The acquisition of drug source drugs has rapidly expanded the cdmo ability of preparations. After the production capacity of Maanshan in Anhui is put into operation, the back-end business is expected to accelerate its development.
Molecular building blocks and tool compounds: the penetration rate of outsourcing and purchase has been improved, and the industry has broad prospects.
In the drug research and development stage, the use of molecular block tool compounds can reduce the subsequent synthesis steps and achieve the purpose of reducing cost and increasing efficiency. 30% of the global pharmaceutical R & D expenditure is used for the production, purchase and outsourcing of drug molecular blocks. According to Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) H-share prospectus and frost Sullivan statistics, excluding the R & D expenses in the clinical stage, we estimate that the global market scale of drug molecular blocks will be US $18.5 billion in 2020 and 4% CAGR in 20202024. Global drug R & D investment continues to increase. With the improvement of outsourcing and purchase penetration of molecular blocks and tool compounds, Chinese high-quality enterprises are expected to obtain a higher market share by virtue of their advantages in technology, cost and rapid response.
Layout recombinant protein and innovative drug cdmo to open up front and rear growth space
Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) continued to accumulate the number of products and key technologies, gained more recognition from customers at home and abroad, and continuously optimized the customer structure. Based on the biopharmaceutical customer channel, the company plans to extend the upstream business to various recombinant protein products to open up the growth space of the front-end business; Based on the advantages of intermediates and APIs, the back-end actively extends the cdmo business of innovative drugs, plans to acquire drug source drugs, and rapidly expand the GMP production capacity of preparations. The number of cdmo projects continues to increase and gradually enters a benign track. Taking the first listed ADC drug in China in cooperation with Rongchang biology as an opportunity, the company is expected to accelerate its development and growth in the fields of ADC toxin and linker.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 191 / 280 / 425 million respectively, with the growth rate of 48.34% / 46.77% / 52.03% respectively, the three-year CAGR of 49% and the corresponding PE of 61 / 42 / 27x respectively. According to the relative valuation method, the reasonable market value of the company in 2022 is 15 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 201.57 yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Patent infringement risk, high-quality professional and technical talent drain risk, the risk that the sales of some products are affected by the progress of customers' projects, and the risk of exchange loss.
