\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 396 Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) )
Key investment points
Photovoltaic hjt equipment: the first microcrystalline PECVD settled in Jinneng; Target conversion efficiency 25% +; Construction of hjt pilot line
1) according to official WeChat official account, the first microcrystalline HJTPECVD equipment has been shipped to Jinneng technology recently, and has overcome the industrialization problem of PECVD microcrystalline coating with large area and high deposition rate. It will push the conversion efficiency of HJT battery production to 25%+.
2) previously, in December 2021, the PECVD equipment for amorphous hjt of the company has been verified by Jinneng production line. The average efficiency of 166 size battery chips has reached 24.38%, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch has reached 24.55%, which is at the leading level in the industry. On this basis, the company and Jinneng will deepen cooperation again and jointly develop "hjt Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery PECVD process based on microcrystalline". (Note: Jinneng is the first enterprise in China to enter the hjt battery industry, and previously used the application material PECVD equipment)
3) technical trend: at present, the photovoltaic hjt industry is dominated by amorphous PECVD equipment, and the average conversion efficiency of mass production is around 24.5%. If the microcrystallization process is introduced on the basis of the existing process, the conductivity, large carrier mobility and higher light transmittance of the battery will be improved, and the mass production conversion efficiency of hjt battery is expected to exceed 25% (single-sided microcrystalline) and 25.5% (double-sided microcrystalline).
4) the layout of microcrystals in the downstream has begun: on February 25, the linkage test run of Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) world's first 600MW hjt microcrystals was successfully completed and entered the stage of mass production preparation. On March 1, Anhui Huasheng phase II 2gw project has entered the stage of installation, commissioning and production, including the heterojunction single-sided microcrystalline production capacity of more than 500MW for single line, and plans to expand production in the next three phases and use double-sided microcrystalline technology. At present, the industry has put forward higher requirements for the conversion efficiency of hjt battery (mass production efficiency 25%), and it is urgent to introduce microcrystalline mass production technology into the market.
5) build hjt / TOPCON pilot line to accelerate research and development. At present, the R & D laboratory has entered the factory construction stage, and the equipment of the whole line is expected to be moved in and officially put into use in early May. Including: high efficiency battery process and equipment technology with conversion efficiency of more than 25% (including double-sided microcrystalline hjt, TOPCON, new metallization scheme, etc.) and silver less and silver free component technology and equipment.
6) technical strength: the company has established Jinchen Gemini in joint venture with German h2gemini (core members have worked in applied materials, Mayer Borg, Schmidt, etc.), with leading technical strength + equity mechanism in the industry. PECVD equipment has the advantages of large capacity and low cost, and the progress is expected to exceed the market expectation. The company has issued a fixed increase of 380 million to develop photovoltaic heterojunction PECVD equipment, which will form an annual production capacity of 20 equipment.
Completion of equity incentive Grant: bind the core personnel of the company; The performance will be accelerated this year and next, with a year-on-year increase of 50% / 60%
The company's equity incentive has been granted. Among them, stock options account for 73% of the total incentive grant, and the exercise price is 117.13 yuan / share. Target value of incentive performance: the target value of performance in 20212023 is 1 / 1.5/240 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20% / 50% / 60%. The company's performance accelerated in 2022, and the judgment increment mainly comes from photovoltaic cell equipment (including TOPCON equipment and heterojunction equipment).
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1 / 170 / 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25% / 65% / 45%, corresponding to 87 / 52 / 36 times of PE. Considering the scarcity of photovoltaic heterojunction equipment of the company, the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the photovoltaic demand is lower than expected; The propulsion speed of heterojunction battery is not as expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
