\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event:
The company announced its business data and realized a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Key investment points:
In 2022, the company successfully achieved a "good start" and is optimistic about the acceleration of annual performance growth. Spring Festival sales have laid the foundation for high growth throughout the year. Taking into account the following four factors, we believe that the company has a high probability of accelerating its performance in 2022, and the annual revenue / profit is expected to increase by about 20% year-on-year: 1) the company's performance in 2021 remains strong, the structural improvement and the effect of non-standard price increase have not been fully released, so we hope that this part of the dividend will be realized in 2022; 2) According to the calculation of base liquor output in the past, the available supply and sales of Maotai liquor this year increased by 10% ~ 15% year-on-year; 3) The company continues to promote the construction of direct marketing and direct supply channels. The price increase of non-standard products, series liquor and exported Maotai liquor, and the shutdown of low-cost products of series liquor can bring about price increase; 4) The introduction of upgraded treasures, Maotai 1935 and other new products also contributed to the incremental revenue.
The price increase expectation has not been fulfilled, but the company has the ability and space to increase the price. Since last December, the company has raised the price of high-quality products, zodiac, year, export and series of wines except 53 ° flying sky; At the same time, the pace of payment and delivery is slower than in previous years, and the dealer's annual contract has not been determined. Based on the above signs, we believe that the possibility of Feitian's direct price increase cannot be completely ruled out at present, and the way and time of price increase cannot be predicted. However, Maotai has strong demand for consumption, investment and collection, enjoys market pricing power, and the company has the ability and space to raise prices, which is also the core factor supporting the company's valuation.
The reform action continues to be implemented, and the leading potential energy is continuously released. At present, high-end Baijiu has come back from sound growth to sound growth (essentially determined by supply and demand). Under the new management initiatives, Moutai's wholesale price has dropped down, and it is expected to stabilize between 25 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) yuan in the future, which is conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of Moutai's consumer market. On September 24, 2021, the new chairman took office. Since taking office, President Ding has continuously promoted market-oriented reform and continuously improved the company's management. The disclosure of business data has stabilized the confidence of the capital market. In addition, Guizhou province clearly pointed out that the added value of Baijiu industry in the whole province in 2022 is no less than 20%. In the context of the overall high base of sauce and wine and the continuous liquidation of small sauce, Moutai will shoulder more important responsibilities.
The management of profit forecast and investment rating companies continues to improve, the performance is highly deterministic, and has the expectation of price increase, so they continue to make firm recommendations. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 41.87/50.26/57.40 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 42 / 35 / 31 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk Tips 1) the epidemic situation repeatedly suppresses the demand of the industry; 2) The macro-economy fluctuates greatly; 3) Changes in industrial policies; 4) The implementation effect of marketing work does not meet expectations; 5) The market expectation of price increase caused volatility.
