The recovery of global demand superimposed on poor supply, and the metal price and sector performed well: the metal price increased significantly in 21 years, driving the performance of the sector and the sharp rise of stock price. As of December 14, the overall increase of non-ferrous metals sector was 52.42%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai index by 46.99 percentage points, ranking second among CITIC’s 30 industries. Rare earth magnetic materials and lithium plate led the chromophore industry, rising 197.6% and 112.79% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2021, the diluted roe of the non-ferrous metal industry was 10.20%, an increase of 6.31% over the same period last year, reaching a new high. At the same time, the allocation proportion of non-ferrous sector of public funds has increased significantly, and the allocation proportion of rare metal sector is the highest.
Small metal magnesium: the demand explosion window of dual wheel drive magnesium for battery structures and building templates is approaching. Some magnesium alloy companies have obtained confirmation orders for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery structural parts, and the “magnesium instead of aluminum” of lithium battery structural parts is expected to usher in an explosion; At the same time, with the unification of production technology and the arrival of large die casting machines, the penetration rate of magnesium alloy building formwork is expected to increase significantly next year. In the long run, automobile lightweight brings high ceiling to the growth of the industry. Magnesium is a high-quality growth small metal in the next five years. It is suggested to pay attention to the magnesium industry leader Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) , which is deeply bound with Baosteel metal and has started the construction of the world’s largest magnesium alloy project; Join hands with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to cut into Sanxiang Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(603663) in the field of lithium battery magnesium alloy structural parts.
Industrial metal nickel: nickel is expected to lead industrial metals by taking advantage of new energy Dongfeng. The demand for high nickel ternary materials breaks out, which is expected to become the main demand growth point of nickel within 5 years, and nickel is expected to become the next highly elastic lithium battery metal. In recent years, Chinese enterprises have arranged laterite nickel mines in Indonesia, with significant first mover advantages, and the production capacity will usher in a large-scale release period. It is suggested to pay attention to the successful operation of the 60000 ton wet process production line in Indonesia, and the upstream integration leader of lithium battery with an additional 45000 tons of thermal process capacity in the future Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ; Comprehensive nonferrous metal operation enterprise with 34000 tons of high matte nickel successfully put into operation Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ; The ternary precursor leader Gem Co.Ltd(002340) with 50000 tons of wet production capacity expected to reach production in 2022.
Precious metals: the game between the rhythm of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and the sustainability of inflation. We expect that precious metal prices are expected to remain high and volatile in 2022. The market focuses on the game between the Fed’s interest rate increase process and the sustainability of high inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) with excellent mineral resource endowment; China’s a + H-share gold leader Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ; Silver faucet Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Nonferrous processing sector: focus on the transfer of the price rise of upstream raw materials to the middle and downstream under the new order cycle. At present, the valuation of non-ferrous processing stocks is low, and the absolute increase this year lags behind other chromophore plates. With the beginning of the new order cycle and the stability of upstream raw materials, the profit margin and profit level are expected to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to the magnesium industry leader Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) who joins hands with Baosteel to accelerate the process of automobile lightweight; Copper processing leader Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) marching into new military materials and high-end equipment; Cost advantage, casting barriers, cutting into the field of lithium copper foil Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) ; Transform and upgrade the hot rolling capacity and develop the aluminum plate, strip and foil segmentation leader Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) in the high-end aluminum market.
Risk hint: the global economic recovery is not as high as the expected risk, the exchange rate fluctuates greatly, and the international epidemic situation is repeated.
