Core ideas of this week:
The supervision of live e-commerce was strengthened. In the past, the tax problems of the head anchor were investigated. Later, Zhejiang Consumer Protection Commission reported that many anchors of the top 5 e-commerce platforms of the double 11 this year had violations during the live broadcast. We believe that the current regulation will be conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the industry. In the short term, it may lead to diversion between platforms, but it has little impact on the overall development of the industry.
For the platform, in the short term, the top anchors involved in tax issues are concentrated on Taobao, which has a certain impact on the short-term sales of the platform, or further strengthen the trend that Taobao platform has been diverted by other platforms in the past two years; In the long run, the market scale of live broadcasting e-commerce continues to expand. With the dual functions of marketing and sales, the live broadcasting room has become an important sales channel for many brands outside China. According to iResearch consulting data, the scale of China's live e-commerce market will exceed RMB 1.2 trillion in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 197.0%. The number of anchor employees in the industry will soar by 1234000, and the scale of live e-commerce will exceed RMB 4.9 trillion in 2023.
For the brand side, there are few brands strongly bound with a single anchor, and since this year, many brands have begun to build and strengthen self broadcasting channels. Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) new live center has been put into use. The company has 9 modern live rooms, involving Tmall, jowin, Jingdong and other mainstream platforms, and the total number of internal hosts and tiktok operators is over 70. We believe that in the long run, the brand side may give more play to the role of anchor in marketing and publicity, and grasp the pricing power and sales channels in its own hands. In the future, the brand anchor will play a greater role in sales.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to brands with strong self broadcasting ability, and pay attention to opportunities in the gold and jewelry industry before the Spring Festival.
Industry recovery: the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3618.05, up or down - 0.39% in the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14710.33, up or down - 1.06% in the week; CITIC consumer service index closed at 11324.83, up or down + 0.26% in the week; CITIC retail trade index closed at 4202.97, up or down + 1.59% for the week. Judging from the weekly growth and decline of Shenwan secondary sub section, the top three were professional chains (4.70%), hotel catering (3.82%) and trade (1.80%), and the last three were jewelry (- 2.49%), education (- 2.14%) and professional services (- 0.25%).
Key reports focus on:
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : the short-term performance is disturbed by the epidemic, and the long-term space for tax-free leaders is broad, October 31, 2021
Cosmetics industry: how to build a century old enterprise for domestic Aromatherapy 2020-12-04
Hotel Industry: what is the growth space for medium and high-end hotels under the rapid expansion 2021-01-04
Higher education industry: analysis of investment opportunities of private universities from four dimensions 2020-11-17
Tracking history: embracing flexible employment, scale and technology are the core of future competition 2020-03-05
Key recommendations: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315)
Long term recommendation: Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605)
Risk tip: the epidemic situation rebounded in some areas, and the economic recovery was less than expected and exceeded the expected policy.
