Key changes this week:
① Central bank: strengthen cross cycle regulation and combine it with counter cycle regulation to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. ② Ministry of housing and urban rural development: adhere to the positioning of “housing without speculation” and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry. ③ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) subscription for China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) fixed increase: it is proposed to subscribe 251 million non-public shares of China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) with its own capital of 1.76 billion yuan. After completion, it will hold 16.3% of the shares of the latter and become the second largest shareholder of its war investment. ④ Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) : the 120000 ton glass fiber production line is planned to be cold repaired and transformed. The proposed project includes 12000 tons of glass fiber filter paper, 4000 tons of high silica glass fiber products, 720 million flat lithium membrane and 260 sets of wind power blades. ⑤ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) nominate Mr. Yin Zibo and Mr. Jia Tongchun as candidates for non independent directors of the sixth board of directors of the company.
Core view:
This week’s market attribution: event driven.
Attach great importance to the infrastructure chain, and recommend cement, water reducer and waterproof in reverse cycle. The implementation of special bond projects is “early”, “quasi” and “fast”, and infrastructure investment is expected to play a “grasping” role to effectively hedge the downward pressure next year, especially Q1.
Optimistic about the TOC retail model, the real estate boom is down, and pay more attention to the difference between high-quality operation and business model. On the other hand, the edge of hardbound housing is weakening, the impact on just needed housing is small, and the retail environment is relatively improved.
The bottom of the real estate chain policy is clear, and it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to the fundamentals. Therefore, we believe that from the perspective of expectation, the front end of the industrial chain is better than the back end, and cement, construction, waterproof and water reducing agent take the lead in benefiting; On the other hand, from the perspective of landing, the improvement of the financing end gives priority to promoting the completion and delivery of houses, and the demand for glass, hardware, coatings, pipes and gypsum board is expected to pick up.
Building materials leaders accelerate the improvement of yield of new materials, synchronously develop new production capacity of customers, and improve application penetration. For example, carbon glass composite materials of wind power blades, UTG glass (folding mobile phone application), medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. it is recommended to focus on the application of new materials, the future revenue contribution is expected to increase steadily, smooth the real estate / infrastructure periodicity, and overcome the impact of limited new capacity of traditional businesses under the background of “double carbon”.
Subject matter of concern:
① Reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity is recommended to pay attention to [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], robustness + green power is recommended to pay attention to [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ]. ② The performance of C-end exceeded expectations, focusing on [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profitability, concentric circle strategy acceleration, and focusing on [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ]. ③ The real estate chain is optimistic about the stabilization of the valuation of consumer building materials. The core targets include [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], and the key targets include [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ]. ④ The application of new materials focuses on [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (UTG), [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] (wind power grouting material, etc.), [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (medium borosilicate tube bottle making), [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] (electronic / photovoltaic / medicinal glass), [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ] (Electronic / photovoltaic glass), Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) . ⑤ the reduction of glass storage exceeds expectations, and the superposition of financing improvement ensures the completion, focusing on [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] [Xinyi Glass] 。 ⑥ Building materials export chain attention [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ].
Risk statement
Infrastructure investment is less than expected; Policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
