Key investment points:
Investment suggestion: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of passenger cars in November 2021 was 2.192 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.7% and a month on month increase of 9.2%. The cumulative sales volume from January to November was 19.06 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The decline in the growth rate of passenger car sales narrowed and continued to improve month on month. With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the recovery of consumer demand at the end of the year, It is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will be further improved in the fourth quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities for the expected improvement of performance brought by high-quality automobile parts suppliers with the recovery of downstream vehicle sales and the decline of raw material prices. In terms of new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in November was 450000, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1% and a month on month increase of 17.3%. The penetration rate of electric vehicles continued to improve. The sales volume of new energy vehicles this year is expected to reach 3.4 million, and it is expected to exceed 5 million next year. Recently, Huawei automotive Solutions Forum was successfully held. Huawei adheres to the development strategy of platform + ecology, focuses on ICT technology, and constructs an intelligent automotive ecosystem around the three digital bases and development tools of intelligent automotive digital platform idvp, intelligent driving computing platform MDC and harmonyos intelligent cockpit. At present, Huawei has rapidly developed more than 300 automotive partners, In addition, the M5, the first model of AITO brand led by Huawei, was officially launched. Huawei’s intelligent vehicle industry chain has developed rapidly, which is expected to guide the further improvement of China’s intelligent vehicle ecosystem. It is suggested to focus on the core suppliers of Huawei’s intelligent vehicle industry chain.
Market review: last week’s auto The (Shenwan) industry index fell by 0.14%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.53 percentage points. The weekly gains of each segment of the automotive industry were – 4.81% for passenger cars, – 0.20% for commercial vehicles, 2.86% for auto parts, 0.88% for automotive services, and – 1.20% for motorcycles and others. Since this year, the sub segment of the automotive industry with the largest increase was the passenger car sector, with an increase of 21.44%. There were 209 stocks in the automotive industry Among them, 92 stocks rose, 113 stocks fell and 4 stocks were flat. The increase was Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) 28.72%, stone new material 27.93%, Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) 27.92%, Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) 23.56% and Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) 23.27%, while the decrease was Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) – 23.43%, Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) – 20.54%, Zotye Automobile Co.Ltd(000980) – 18.13%, Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.Ltd(600698) – 14.14% and West Shanghai Automotive Service Co.Ltd(605151) – 13.94%. At present, the overall valuation PE (TTM) of the automotive industry is 31.9 times, higher than the historical average pe18.3 times in recent 10 years.
Industry trends: 1) Xiao Yaqing of the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the Ministry of industry and information technology will start the pilot city of comprehensive electrification of vehicles in the public domain; 2) The 14th five year plan for digital transportation development focuses on promoting the research and formulation of standards related to vehicle road coordination and automatic driving; 3) The automobile output of Volkswagen headquarters factory may increase by 43% next year.
Company dynamics: 1), Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts Co.Ltd(605018) (605018): Announcement on the official production of “automobile stamping and welding parts (Wuhan) production base construction project”; 2), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689): Announcement on signing Chongqing investment intention agreement; 3), Changzhou Nrb Corporation(002708) (002708): Announcement on the receipt of Zero run technology fixed-point notice by subordinate companies.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected
