Core view
Our overall investment strategy for light industry manufacturing, textile and clothing in 2022 is to “seek” progress “in” change “, and subdivide the leaders to take the lead. Focus on the post epidemic era, actively change and seek high-quality development of enterprise value.
Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them (1) customized furniture: we expect that the delivery area will maintain a rapid growth in 2022, and the prosperity of furniture demand is expected to improve. Leading channel changes, especially the leading enterprises taking the lead in layout in terms of traffic entrance, are expected to go through the cycle strongly and realize the rapid improvement of concentration. (2) The revenue side of finished furniture enterprises is expected to grow steadily in 2022, the multiple factors of raw materials, exchange and shipping are alleviated, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released.
Papermaking and packaging printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. (1) Cultural paper: under the influence of double control, the supply contraction caused by the shutdown and production reduction of paper enterprises has limited short-term support for the price of cultural paper. The “double reduction” policy may suppress the consumption of cultural paper, and the industry concentration is expected to accelerate. (2) Packaging paper: the shortage of waste paper resources is expected to further optimize the competition pattern of the industry, and the industry concentration is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) for early overseas production capacity layout or construction of raw material base, and Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) for steady production capacity of food packaging paper and special paper under the background of tightening the “plastic restriction order”. (3) Household paper: under the background of consumption upgrading, the market scale of household paper industry continues to expand, the quality upgrading trend is obvious, the market concentration is relatively scattered, and the environmental protection policy continues to increase, promoting the accelerated reshuffle of the industry.
Entertainment Jewelry: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. (1) Stationery: we believe that the main driving force for the expansion of China’s stationery industry in the future will be price growth, and leading stationery enterprises are expected to continue to benefit from their outstanding brand strength and product strength. (2) Jewelry: the prosperity of China’s jewelry industry has recovered rapidly after the epidemic. We expect that the market concentration is expected to accelerate under the catalysis of the epidemic and other factors, and the competition pattern may be effectively optimized.
Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. According to the retail data of Euromonitor, in the current sales channel structure of China’s indoor household products, professional channels such as home decoration account for nearly 70%. We believe that in the future, in the home decoration industry with low standardization and high dependence on manual delivery, single category manufacturers or retailers will have certain limitations in data accumulation and application, while offline professional channels, especially large chain home stores, will continue to dominate home retail with one-stop multi category coverage and Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) support. It is recommended to focus on Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) leading in digital transformation.
Textile and clothing: the national trend continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children’s wear. Looking forward to 2022, we are still optimistic about sports shoes and clothing and children’s wear track investment opportunities. (1) Sports shoes and clothing: the growth rate of China’s sports clothing industry is considerable, and the space for the improvement of per capita cost and penetration is expected. With the acceleration of competition and epidemic situation of various brands, the industry reshuffle, and the deepening of barriers for head brands, Anta sports, which operates in the mode of “single focus, multi brand and omni channel”, gives priority to benefit. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of sports shoes OEM Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) . (2) Children’s clothing: the “willing investment” of children’s consumption has become the endogenous driving force for the development of children’s clothing market. The three child policy and other favorable consumer groups have expanded, and the children’s clothing track can continue to prosper. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) with the highest market share of children’s clothing and Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) with prominent brand and channel advantages.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Risk of terminal demand slump; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
